Hurricane Rafael Hits Cuba as a Powerful Category 3 Storm
The storm made landfall on Wednesday afternoon, and forecasters warned of flash floods and mudslides as the storm moves over the island.
Hurricane Rafael made landfall in the western Cuban province of Artemisa on Wednesday as a powerful Category 3 storm, bringing the threat of a storm surge as high as a one story building and delivering excessive rains, potential mudslides and powerful winds.
Across the region, Rafael is expected to bring heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Thursday as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters are less certain of where it goes after that, as it approaches the United States or possibly Mexico in the coming days.
Here’s what you need to know:
Forecasters warned of the potential for wind gusts and significant storm surge that could raise water levels by 9 to 14 feet as the storm moves across Cuba through Wednesday evening. Ahead of the storm’s arrival, the government declared a hurricane warning in several provinces, and scrambled to position supplies in a country already slammed by severe food and gas shortages. Cuba has been struggling to keep the lights on for months and has suffered several nationwide blackouts recently, and just before the storm hit the government announced that Rafael’s winds had knocked out power across the island.
Heavy rain has caused flooding and landslides in some parts of Jamaica, after the storm moved through earlier this week. Residents woke on Wednesday to more flooding, which left some roads impassable. Videos shared by a local broadcaster, Television Jamaica, showed muddy waters submerging streets in Negril, a popular tourist spot in western Jamaica.
Tropical storm conditions were expected in the Florida Keys on Wednesday, along with the possibility of some tornadoes. Forecasters warned that the storm may remain a hurricane as it enters the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. Here’s a day-by-day look at what forecasters expect from the storm this week.
Just after 4 p.m., Rafael made landfall in the Cuban province of Artemisa, east of Playa Majana, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds near 115 miles per hour, National Hurricane Center forecasters said.
Rafael is about to make landfall in Cuba, as the most intense section of the storm is battering the shores. The hurricane is likely to have peaked in intensity and will continue to be a Category 3 storm as it moves inland but will weaken as it crosses the island.
The eye of Rafael is nearing Cuba and will make landfall in the country over the next few hours, forecasters said in a special update that will continue hourly. Weather radar out of Key West shows that some of the strongest rain bands are lashing Cuba as the worst of the storm approaches.
Rafael has strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 miles per hour as it bears down on western Cuba. In the latest update forecasters warned that “additional strengthening is likely before Rafael makes landfall in Cuba this afternoon.”
An eye is beginning to emerge in satellite imagery, just one more indication that Hurricane Rafael is rapidly intensifying. This hurricane, with wind speeds now at 110 miles per hour, will likely reach Category 3 strength by landfall in Cuba.
The storm is likely to still be at hurricane strength after crossing Cuba and entering the Gulf of Mexico. While there is still uncertainty about where the storm will go this weekend, it has become clearer that Rafael will be steered into the western Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday.
Hurricane Rafael strengthened on Wednesday morning into a Category 2 hurricane, according to the latest National Hurricane Center advisory, after it passed over the Cayman Islands overnight. The storm is expected to make landfall in western Cuba, weakening over Cuba before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico again as a hurricane. A hurricane warning was discontinued for the island of Grand Cayman, but remained in place in two other islands along with several provinces in Cuba.
Rafael continues to swiftly intensify, and forecasters said that it was likely the storm would strengthen to near major hurricane strength (wind speed of 111 miles per hour or faster) before making landfall in western Cuba today.
The storm’s eye had passed by the Cayman Islands and was heading northwest on Wednesday morning. A hurricane hunter investigating Rafael found sustained wind speeds near 90 miles per hour. Forecasters said Rafael was expected to continue strengthening on Wednesday as it approaches western Cuba.
Heavy rain will fall in parts of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday. Between 4 to 7 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Dry areas near coastlines could be flooded by rising waters, the National Hurricane Center said.
Rafael is expected to strengthen rapidly and become a Category 2 hurricane before it makes landfall in Cuba later on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory.
A hurricane hunter investigating Rafael found sustained wind speeds of 75 miles per hour, which means the storm is now a Category 1 hurricane as it heads toward the Cayman Islands tonight. Forecasters said Rafael is expected to continue strengthening on Wednesday as it approaches Cuba.
Rafael is gaining strength with winds of 70 miles per hour, just 4 m.p.h. shy of hurricane strength, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. It will likely reach this intensity over the next several hours as it passes through the Cayman Islands and will likely strengthen more before it reaches Cuba. While the storm is forecast to peak at Category 1 intensity, there is a chance Rafael could become stronger than currently forecast, especially now that it has developed a more robust inner core of winds.
Rafael’s center is making its closest approach to Jamaica as it spins past the western end of the Island. The tropical storm still hasn’t strengthened into a hurricane, but a hurricane hunter plane is in the storm now investigating its strength.
Rafael seems to be overcoming some dry air near its center, a hindering factor in strengthening. The storm’s strongest winds are constricting and becoming better organized, a sign that it will likely intensify into a hurricane this afternoon. The center of the storm is passing by the west coast of Jamaica now and will be near the Cayman Islands tonight.
Forecasters are still uncertain what will happen with the storm once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
The Cuban government announced that Hurricane Rafael has already knocked out power across the island. The country’s power grid has struggled in recent months, and Cuba faced repeated nationwide outages in the run-up to Hurricane Oscar, which hit the eastern side of the island in October.
Operations at several airports in Cuba will be suspended until midday Thursday because of Rafael, the Cuban Aviation Corporation said. The State Department has also warned travelers to defer trips to Cuba because of the forecast, which includes damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge and destructive waves. “Be prepared to shelter in place until the storm passes and services re-open,” it said.
This storm could not come at a worse time for Cuba. It has been struggling to keep the lights on for months and has suffered several nationwide blackouts recently. Hurricane Oscar late last month killed at least eight people in a country known for excellent disaster preparedness but where a power outage made it almost impossible for people to follow hurricane-related warnings by radio or TV.
Cuba declared a hurricane warning in the provinces of Villa Clara, Sancti Spíritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, and the island of Isla de la Juventud Wednesday morning, and scrambled to position supplies in a country already slammed by severe food and gas shortages.
In Pinar del Río, in western Cuba, 200 tons of rice were to be distributed, but officials warned that weather conditions might thwart deliveries. With more than two dozen pumping stations out of commission or evacuated, officials said they were most worried about the water supply.
Residents woke on Wednesday to more flooding in Jamaica, which left some roads impassable. The rain had already caused landslides and blocked residents in the parish of St. Catherine from traveling, the National Works Agency said on social media. Videos shared by a local broadcaster, Television Jamaica, showed muddy waters submerging streets in Negril, a popular tourist spot in western Jamaica.
Flood watches are in place for much of Jamaica until Wednesday evening, including the capital of Kingston, according to Jamaica’s meteorological service. The service had warned residents overnight to prepare for flash flooding. In the Cayman Islands, an all clear was issued for the island of Grand Cayman early Wednesday, but a hurricane warning was still in place for Cayman Brac and Little Cayman. Weather conditions were expected to gradually improve on Wednesday, the Cayman government said, but all vessels should remain in safe harbor.
In the Florida Keys, where a tropical storm warning is in effect, officials in Monroe County announced that schools and government offices will be closed on Wednesday. No evacuations have been ordered, but officials warned people living on boats, in mobile homes or in RVs and campers to seek safe shelter on Wednesday. A popular high-speed power boat race, part of Race World Offshore’s week-long boat fest, was called off. Heavy rain and strong winds — and, potentially, tornadoes — are expected in the Keys on Wednesday, forecasters said.
With a heavy rain weather pattern headed to the east and a potential hurricane on the west, Cuban authorities ordered preparations in huge swaths of the island Tuesday.
A hurricane warning was in effect for the west central provinces of Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, a small island just south of Cuba. Classes were suspended, and low-lying areas near rivers and dams were evacuated. Heavy rain unrelated to Rafael was forecast in Camagüey.
“What we do now will allow us to reduce damages,” President Miguel Díaz-Canel said on X.
Judson Jones is a meteorologist and reporter for The Times.
After cutting across the Caribbean Sea this week, sideswiping Jamaica and passing through the Cayman Islands as a rapidly intensifying hurricane, Rafael, now a Category 3 hurricane, will make landfall in Cuba on Wednesdaybefore emerging into the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, likely still as a hurricane.
Forecasters are fairly confident that the hurricane will move across the Gulf of Mexico toward the western Gulf on Thursday and Friday, but they are still less certain of where it goes after that, as it approaches the United States or possibly Mexico.
As of Wednesday afternoon, here’s a look at where forecasters think the storm will head this week.
Wednesday
Wednesday afternoon, Rafael was close to the southwestern coast of Cuba, where it’s expected to make landfall later in the day, likely as a major hurricane, at least a Category 3. The country’s power grid has struggled in recent weeks, and Cuba faced repeated nationwide outages in the run-up to Hurricane Oscar, which hit the eastern side of the island in October.
In Cuba, storm surge could raise water levels by as much as nine to fourteen feet above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, forecasters said.
The big question is what happens after the storm crosses Cuba, because forecasters have an idea but are still less certain about what it will do when it enters the Gulf of Mexico. While there is still a lot of what if scenarios, the next few days seems to be a bit clearer.
Tropical storm-force winds are also likely to arrive in South Florida this evening, with sustained winds of 30 to 35 m.p.h. and occasional gusts of 40 to 45 m.p.h., forecasters in Key West said. A couple of brief tornadoes are also possible within Rafael’s outer bands, from Wednesday afternoon and through the evening across the Florida Keys and the far southern peninsula of Florida, they said.
Thursday
There is still some question as to how intense Rafael will be after crossing over Cuba, but forecasters believe it will remain a hurricane Thursday. The steering pattern seems to be stronger, and the official forecast predicts that the storm will cross across the southern Gulf of Mexico toward the west.
Friday
Originally forecasters thought that Rafael would weaken on Friday but a more southerly path through the southern Gulf of Mexico is a more hospitable environment and the storm may maintain hurricane strength.
Saturday
Forecasters said this is the day where there is a larger-than-normal uncertainty regarding Rafael’s intensity, as the storm enters the western Gulf of Mexico. There is a chance the storm dissipates as the weather conditions in the area shred the hurricane apart. Or, because of the southerly track, it maintains its intensity.
They are unsure of exactly where the storm might go from this point, if it doesn’t disperse.
It’s possible that the storm it could turn toward the southwest and move inland over Mexico. It is also reasonably probable that the storm turns back toward the U.S. coast and makes landfall in Texas or Louisiana.
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