Monday, March 10, 2014

After Big Bet, Hedge Fund Pulls the Levers of Power


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William A. Ackman has made a $1 billion bet on Herbalife’s collapse, and lobbied aggressively for it. CreditScott Eells/Bloomberg, via Getty Images
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WASHINGTON — At a Midtown Manhattan steakhouse last June, 

William A. Ackman, the activist hedge fund manager who had bet a billion dollars on the collapse of the nutritional supplement company Herbalife, offered his latest evidence to a handful of other hedge fund managers about why the company’s stock could soon plummet.
Mr. Ackman told his dinner companions that Representative Linda T. Sánchez, Democrat of California, had sent a letter to the Federal Trade Commission the previous day calling for an investigation of the company.
The commission had not yet stamped the letter as received, nor had it been made public. But Mr. Ackman, who had personally lobbied Ms. Sánchez and stood to profit if the company’s stock dropped as a result of the call for an inquiry, already knew what it said, and read from a copy of it that he had on his cellphone.
When Ms. Sánchez’s office ultimately issued a news release a month later, it was backdated as though it had been made public the day before Mr. Ackman’s dinner talk.
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Representative Linda T. Sánchez, Democrat of California, sent a letter to the F.T.C. asking it to investigate Herbalife. Mr. Ackman obtained a copy of the letter before it was made public.
The letter was a small hint of Mr. Ackman’s extraordinary attempt to leverage the corridors of power — in Washington, state capitols and city halls — for his hedge fund’s profit after taking a $1 billion financial position called a short, a bet that will pay off only if Herbalife’s stock drops.
Corporate money is forever finding new ways to influence government. But Mr. Ackman’s campaign to take this fight “to the end of the earth,” using every weapon in the arsenal that Washington offers in an attempt to bring ruin to one company, is a novel one, fusing the financial markets with the political system.
Others have criticized the business practices of Herbalife, a company that sells vitamins and other health supplements through independent distributors, many of whom are lower-income Latinos or African-Americans. But Mr. Ackman’s attack is unprecedented in its scale, and Herbalife officials strongly deny his accusations that the company is a pyramid scheme that stays afloat by constantly recruiting new distributors.
To pressure state and federal regulators to investigate Herbalife, an act that alone could cause its stock to dive, his team has helped organize protests, news conferences and letter-writing campaigns in California, Nevada, Connecticut, New York and Illinois, although several of the people who signed the letters to state and federal officials say they do not remember sending them, an investigation by The New York Times has found.
His team has also paid civil rights organizations at least $130,000 to join his effort by helping him collect the names of people who claimed they were victimized by Herbalife in order to send the leads to regulators, the investigation found. Mr. Ackman’s team also provided the money used by some of these individuals to travel to Washington to participate in a rally against Herbalife last month.
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DOCUMENT

The Herbalife War

A look at the war waged by William A. Ackman against Herbalife, and the few hints of the effort by the company to fight back.
 OPEN DOCUMENT
Herbalife has mobilized its own army of lobbyists to defend itself against Mr. Ackman’s charges. “These accusations are provably false,” said Herbalife’s chief financial officer, John G. DeSimone. “And they can all be traced back to the same source: hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman, who is motivated by one thing — getting even richer by winning a billion-dollar bet he made against our company, by any means possible, no matter how unscrupulous.”
The feud has touched off a bidding war of sorts, emails obtained by The Times show, as the advocacy groups have in some cases pressed Mr. Ackman’s team and Herbalife to contribute more money in exchange for their allegiance.
Mr. Ackman is not new to playing chess on a billionaire’s scale. The brash 47-year-old, a graduate of Harvard Business School, built his $12 billion, New York City-based hedge fund, Pershing Square Capital Management, on enormous, risky bets on companies like Jim Beam and Canadian Pacific Rail that earned billions for him and his clients. He has had some big losses too, including an estimated $473 million last August on an investment in J. C. Penney, the struggling retailer.
Regulators frequently get entreaties from financiers urging action for their own financial gain, like the hedge fund executives who in 2010tried to secretly push Obama administration officials to investigate for-profit colleges, again citing fraudulent industry practices, after betting that their stocks would decline.
But Mr. Ackman’s efforts illustrate how Washington is increasingly becoming a battleground of Wall Street’s financial titans, whose interest in influencing public policy is driven primarily by a desire for profit — part of an expanding practice in the nation’s capital, with corporations, law firms and lobbying practices establishing political intelligence units to gather news they can trade on.
So far, Mr. Ackman has persuaded four members of Congress, a New York State senator, a City Council member in Boston, the majority leader of the Nevada Senate and other elected officials in California to join the cause. Prominent consumer advocates in Washington, as well as leaders of well-respected Hispanic and African-American community groups who have been lobbied by Mr. Ackman’s team, have also written regulators demanding action.
Mr. Ackman has trumpeted the news conferences and protests to create the image that the walls were closing in on Herbalife, a company no stranger to controversy, whose sales reached a record $4.8 billion last year.
He has argued that he is trying to protect Hispanics, who he says are most frequently recruited by Herbalife as distributors, only to find out that there is little money to be made.
Yet Mr. Ackman’s staff acknowledges that this crusade is really rooted in one goal: finding a way to undermine public confidence in Herbalife so that his $1 billion bet will produce an equally enormous return. Mr. Ackman has said he will donate any profits he personally earns to charity, calling it “blood money.” The clients who invest in his hedge fund, however, would still benefit enormously.
Brent A. Wilkes, the national executive director of the Washington-based League of United Latin American Citizens, or Lulac, rejected any suggestion that he had become Mr. Ackman’s tool — even though his organization accepted a $10,000 contribution early last year, and since then has taken a position at the forefront of the anti-Herbalife campaign.
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Brent Wilkes of the League of United Latin American Citizens, which said it would return a $10,000 contribution. CreditFred Prouser/Reuters
Instead, Mr. Ackman’s bet is just helping draw attention to longstanding abusive practices by Herbalife, said Mr. Wilkes, who acknowledged that he had never previously focused on the issue.
“It’s not the Latino groups that are helping Bill Ackman,” Mr. Wilkes said. “Bill Ackman is helping the Latino groups. He has elevated this battle.” On Sunday evening, after questions from The Times, Mr. Wilkes said he had decided to return the donation, so there was no chance anyone could suspect he had undertaken the effort “for a mere $10,000 table purchase” at one of his fund-raising events.
Harvey L. Pitt, a former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, said that Mr. Ackman’s campaign was starting “to look like an effort to move the price rather than spread the truth.”
“If you are trying to spread the truth, that is O.K.,” Mr. Pitt said. “If you are trying to move the price of a stock to vindicate your investment philosophy, that’s not O.K.”
Mr. Ackman rejected the assertions that he had done anything wrong.
“Our goal here is to shine a spotlight on Herbalife and let the government know all the facts and motivate them to do something,” Mr. Ackman said in an interview on Sunday.
So far, Mr. Ackman has little to show for his efforts. Herbalife’s stock has climbed higher, in part because the billionaire investor Carl C. Icahn decided to buy a large stake in the company, and the regulators lobbied by Mr. Ackman have not taken any formal action against the company.
That has not deterred Mr. Ackman, who is not known to retreat from a risky investment without a fight, even if it takes years.
In February, 14 months after he announced he had wagered big money on the collapse of Herbalife, and with around $500 million in paper losses so far, he announced that instead of backing down, he had made his bet even bigger.
If Herbalife “were to disappear tomorrow, we’d make a lot more than had it just blown up the day after I gave my last presentation — although life would be a little easier,” he told an audience of Wall Street investors and media attending an investor conference last month.
Pitches to Regulators
One of Mr. Ackman’s first stops in his crusade to bring Herbalife down was a meeting at the regional field headquarters of the S.E.C. in Lower Manhattan, where more than 400 enforcement lawyers, accountants, investigators and other staff members work to police some of the nation’s biggest corporate players.
He presented investigators in New York with a year’s worth of financial research that he said showed that Herbalife was misleading investors by failing to properly disclose that most of its sales were generated by simply recruiting more distributors, rather than by selling large amounts of its product to consumers.
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Kiosks are used to place orders of Herbalife products at a Carson, Calif., distribution center.CreditPatrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg
Mr. Ackman, according to people who were present at the briefing, pointed to internal company records that showed a large share of these distributors, recruited to join the sales teams based on extravagant predictions, quickly gave up.
He made other presentations, to investigators from the F.T.C. and state authorities, because he knew regulatory action would be among the quickest ways to make good on his prediction that the company’s stock was going to crash.
“So the risk we took in making this investment was could we get the world to focus on a company, could it get enough of a spotlight so that the S.E.C., the F.T.C., the 50 attorney generals around the country, the equivalent regulators in 87 countries, if any one of them, or at least any powerful member of that group, could we get them interested?” Mr. Ackman explained at the investors conference in February, 14 months after he made his bet on Herbalife public. “And I think that was the biggest risk we took in going short” on Herbalife.
Mr. Ackman once made a similar bet against the bond insurer MBIA, one that reaped him and his investors a $1.1 billion return. In a book about his MBIA wager called “Confidence Game,” the reporter-turned-financial analyst Christine S. Richard chronicled how he fought with regulators for seven years before his prediction that MBIA stock would “spiral downward” came true. In a twist, it was Ms. Richard, who left Bloomberg News to start up the Wall Street research shop Indago Group, who gave Mr. Ackman the idea to short Herbalife.
After listening to Mr. Ackman’s pitch, S.E.C. investigators moved almost immediately last January to begin an inquiry into Herbalife — which newspapers reported, creating the coverage that Mr. Ackman needed to fuel his strategy.
From there, his team worked to create outside pressure, assigning lobbying, public relations and so-called grass-roots advocacy teams to attempt to build support across the country.
The team includes lobbying firms run by two former members of Congress: Toby Moffett, a Democrat who once represented Connecticut, and Robert S. Walker, a Republican from Pennsylvania. Mr. Ackman also hired firms run by former top White House aides for President Obama and President Clinton. Jim Papa, who handled legislative affairs for the Obama White House, also joined the effort, with his firm, Global Strategy Group, a longtime consultant to Mr. Ackman.
In some cases, the hiring was even more strategic. In Massachusetts, Mr. Ackman’s firm hired the lobbyist Larry Rasky, who was an aide to Senator Edward J. Markey, Democrat of Massachusetts, when Mr. Markey was a member of the House. Another lobbyist, Malcolm Grace, is a former aide to Ms. Sánchez. Both Mr. Markey and Ms. Sánchez would ultimately play critical roles in the effort.
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Edward J. Markey, Democratic senator of Massachusetts.CreditNicholas Kamm/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Mr. Ackman also retained the Dewey Square Group, a Washington-based firm that specializes in “grass-roots advocacy,” to influence officials by recruiting surrogates to speak out against Herbalife in emails, tweets, letters or rallies.
He employed Dewey Square to focus on Hispanic and black community leaders and politicians based on a belief that because many of the individuals who are recruited as distributors by Herbalife are minorities, taking on the company might in some way help the Latino community. Separately, the lobbyists and grass-roots organizers set up meetings with major consumer groups.
Enlisting Allies
A wave of additional letters started to be sent to federal regulators by groups like the Hispanic Federation and the Consumer Federation. Each person contacted by The Times acknowledged in interviews that they wrote the letters after being lobbied by representatives from Pershing Square, or said they did not remember writing the letters at all. Mr. Ackman’s team also then started to make payments totaling about $130,000 to some of these groups, including the Hispanic Federation — money he said was being used to help find victims of Herbalife. The pitch by Mr. Ackman peaked in early February, when nearly 30 people affiliated with Latino advocacy and church groups, several of whom had joined the cause after being briefed by consultants hired by Mr. Ackman, flew to Washington to meet with members of Congress and the head of the F.T.C., again pressing for investigators to take action against the company.
Three of the nonprofit group leaders who participated in the event, from Massachusetts, Illinois and Washington, said they took part because they also believed that Herbalife was taking advantage of the working class and poor.
“At the end of the day, these people are becoming millionaires off the back of the people in the shadows,” said Julie Contreras, the president of the Lulac chapter in Waukegan, Ill., who traveled to Washington for the event, adding that she had not taken any money from Mr. Ackman or anyone on his team.
Mr. Ackman did not publicize his role in helping generate these letters or rallies, or the fact that his consultants in many cases wrote the language that is used in these letters, but his team still issued news releases noting that yet another group had called for an investigation.
In Washington, Mr. Ackman’s efforts bore fruit on Jan. 23, when Mr. Markey’s office, which Mr. Ackman had lobbied himself and which had been provided with detailed information about Herbalife by Mr. Ackman’s team, sent letters to the S.E.C. and F.T.C., calling for investigations of the company. A little more than a half-hour after the stock began trading that day its value fell by 14 percent.
The letter sent by Ms. Sánchez in June, which Mr. Ackman discussed at the dinner, did not move the stock. Ms. Sánchez’s office acknowledges that it sent a copy of this letter to Mr. Ackman’s team a month before it issued its news release on the matter, and says that it backdated the letter when making it public because The New York Post reported its existence a week after the dinner. The dinner itself was reported in August by The Wall Street Journal.A spokeswoman for Ms. Sánchez said backdating the news release was not inappropriate, as the office considered the document public when it was sent to the F.T.C.
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Linda T. Sánchez, Democratic representative of California.CreditBrendan Smialowski for The New York Times
Despite his efforts, Herbalife’s stock over the last 14 months has actually gone up. But Mr. Ackman, at least publicly, has tried to maintain the confidence of his investors, telling them last summer that he was confident he had made “material progress” in his attempts to persuade regulators to crack down on the company — an act that would be certain to hurt its stock price.
“We believe that the probability of timely, aggressive regulatory intervention has increased materially,” he said in the letter.
A Lack of Victims
The Nevada attorney general, Catherine Cortez Masto, was among the many officials who found herself enmeshed in the debate. But as the fight unfolded, with Latino groups holding a news conference in East Las Vegas demanding that she investigate Herbalife, she had some questions.
She says she was struck by the appeals for an investigation of Herbalife, at first directly from representatives for Mr. Ackman’s firm and then from others: All three of the letters from nonprofit groups demanding an investigation were identical — except they were signed by three different Hispanic community leaders, each on a different letterhead.
When Ms. Masto invited the Hispanic leaders to meet with her individually, none of them could identify a victim of abusive practices.
“We are not going to move forward unless we have victims,” she told the community leaders.
In Nevada, the Ramirez Group, a political consulting firm run by a former aide to the Senate majority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, helped line up Hispanic groups and then contacted local reporters to attend a news conference, emails obtained by The New York Times show.
The attorney general in Connecticut, George Jepsen, said he had a similar experience. He received five letters with almost identical text. “Herbalife is a complex and abusive pyramid scheme,” the letters each said. “Herbalife unfairly targets minority groups and falsely markets itself as an easy business opportunity.”
One came from the mayor of the city of Waterbury, another from a former state legislator that Mr. Ackman had hired as a lobbyist, and a third from Israel Alvarez, a Puerto Rican-born hairstylist in Hartford.
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Five Nearly Identical Letters

Five people in Connecticut sent letters with very similar language urging the Federal Trade Commission to open an investigation into Herbalife.
  • Letter to Ct. Attorney GeneralEvelyn C. Mantilla
    Ms. Mantilla’s government relations firm was hired by Global Strategy Group, which Mr. Ackman’s firm had retained to discredit Herbalife. Her letter does not mention her connection to Mr. Ackman.
  • Letter to Ct. Attorney GeneralIsrael Alvarez
    Mr. Alvarez, a hairstylist in Hartford, said he never wrote the letter signed in his name and did not know anybody who had been harmed by Herbalife.
  • Letter to Ct. Attorney GeneralMary Ann Turner
    Ms. Turner declined to say who asked her to send the letter. “I don't remember anything,” she said. Asked how it could have been identical to others, she said: “It is just something I wrote. I guess we are really smart.”
  • Letter to Ct. Attorney GeneralNeil O’Leary
    Mr. O’Leary, the mayor of Waterbury, Conn., does not recall who contacted him about the letter, his chief of staff said.
  • Letter to Ct. Attorney GeneralLiliana Madrid
    Could not be reached for comment.
In a telephone interview, Mr. Alvarez said he did not recall writing the letter. Asked if he had ever heard of the company named Herbalife, he said it was “a vitamin thing, and food thing.”
None of the letters cited any specific victims of Herbalife’s business practices. In fact, only one person had filled out a formal complaint form with the Connecticut attorney general’s office. State investigators were ultimately unable to substantiate the person’s claim that he lost $1,500 through the company five years ago.
The effort reached the West Coast as well. In California, Mr. Ackman’s team sent Minyon Moore, a former senior Clinton White House aide, to host a meeting in October at the landmark West Angeles Church of God in Christ in the city’s predominantly black South Central neighborhood. Ms. Moore detailed what she said were Herbalife’s deceptive sales techniques, participants in the meeting said.
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Minyon Moore, a former Clinton White House aide.CreditMelina Mara/The Washington Post, via Getty Images
Within a matter of weeks, Mr. Ackman’s consultants had helped organize a demonstration outside an Herbalife conference in Los Angeles and helped persuade nearly two dozen prominent Latin American and black community leaders to send letters to state and federal officials demanding action — letters that are now posted on an anti-Herbalife website that Mr. Ackman’s consultants control.
Najee Ali, a longtime activist in Los Angeles who attended the meeting at the church and then wrote one of the letters to California’s attorney general, said he was moved by Ms. Moore’s appeal.
“Her remarks were very touching and compelling, and her credibility across black America — it is unquestioned, so I really took to heart her argument,” Mr. Ali said.
But he had no idea that Ms. Moore was working on behalf of a hedge fund manager who had made a bet on Herbalife’s stock — and that his letter had become part of a lobbying strategy.
“Have I become an instrument in some billionaire’s investment campaign?” he said, adding that he now regrets sending the letter. “I don’t want to be an unwitting pawn, and that is how I am feeling right now.”
Pershing Square and its lobbyists argue that many of Herbalife’s victims are afraid to come forward because they are undocumented. “It’s a problem that we haven’t been able to find victims to come out,” said Maria Cardona at Dewey Square, who specializes in appeals to Hispanic Americans.
But Mr. Ackman once again had a solution: Pay nonprofit groups across the United States to find the victims Mr. Ackman knew he needed to compel the regulators to act.
So Global Strategy Group, a consulting firm helping Mr. Ackman conduct the campaign, began to make such payments, including about $120,000 to the Hispanic Federation and another $10,000 to Make the Road New York.
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A Grassroots Video, With Help From a Billionaire

Make the Road New York, a nonprofit advocacy group for Latinos, promoted this video showing people who said they were hurt by Herbalife. The video encourages people to report their own complaints about Herbalife to a toll-free number.
Make the Road doesn’t disclose that it received a $10,000 payment from Mr. Ackman’s firm. The toll-free number plays a recording nearly identical to hotlines in CaliforniaIllinois and Nevada.
The recording on the video’s toll-free number
36 seconds
Other leaders of prominent Hispanic nonprofit groups said that a New York-based lobbyist hired by Mr. Ackman, Luis A. Miranda Jr., had also been holding a series of meetings offering payments at the same time that he was asking for their help in the anti-Herbalife campaign. Mr. Miranda denied these allegations, but emails obtained by The Times include discussions of possible support for programs run by groups whose leaders he had just approached for help on the Herbalife campaign.
The effort to find Herbalife victims now also includes toll-free numbers set up in at least four states, with recordings in English and Spanish urging people to report wrongdoing by the company.
“If you, a loved one or a friend have fallen for Herbalife’s deceptive marketing practices, we need you to share your story,” the recording says. “Every story can make a difference.”
A Global Powerhouse
Herbalife, according to the company’s official history, was born out of the trunk of a car in 1980, when a 24-year-old California man, Mark R. Hughes, began selling a protein shake that he had concocted, he said, after his mother had died of an accidental overdose of diet pills.
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Herbalife products are on display at a distribution center in Carson, Calif. The company has repeatedly denied the claims that it is a pyramid scheme.CreditPatrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg, via Getty Images
The company has grown into a global powerhouse, with a worldwide team of more than three million so-called members and distributors who operate as independent contractors through a system that rewards many of them not only based on actual sales, but also on their ability to recruit more distributors.
The sales tactic, popular with many nutritional supplement companies, has frequently been the target of criticism. In 1986, California authorities issued an order prohibiting Herbalife from making false claims about the weight-loss powers of its nutritional drinks.
But never before has the company met an opponent quite like Mr. Ackman. In fact, company executives acknowledge that they underestimated just how far-reaching his effort would be.
Herbalife’s opinion changed on Jan. 23, when Mr. Ackman’s campaign scored its biggest hit yet: a United States senator, Mr. Markey, sent letters to the S.E.C. and the F.T.C., and Herbalife’s stock fell.
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A Senator’s Letter, and a Stock’s Fall

On Jan. 23, Senator Edward J. Markey of Massachusetts sent lettersasking the F.T.C. and S.E.C. to look into Herbalife. The letters were based at least in part on research that William A. Ackman’s firm provided. Herbalife stock fell by 14 percent.
Mr. Ackman’s anti-Herbalife website originally posted copies of the letters dated Jan. 22, while Mr. Markey’s office sent them out to the public dated Jan. 23. Mr. Markey’s office attributed this to a clerical mistake and added that Mr. Ackman’s office had merely obtained early versions of their letters from Mr. Markey’s website.
Herbalife, after Mr. Ackman announced his bet, had already expanded its own lobbying team, hiring, among others, the Glover Park Group, founded by former top Clinton administration aides, and the Podesta Group, run by Tony Podesta, who is known for his close ties to the Obama White House. With help from this team, last month the company held a private briefing for more than 30 Capitol Hill aides, defending itself against Mr. Ackman’s charges — and the echo chamber they argue he has manufactured.
They also retained the law firm Dickstein Shapiro, which has a large practice that specializes in lobbying attorneys general around the United States. Herbalife was so determined to force Mr. Ackman to back down it asked an investment adviser it retains, Moelis & Company, to approach some of the investors in Mr. Ackman’s fund, suggesting that his bet was dangerous and could cost them dearly.
To counteract the appeals Mr. Ackman had made to Latino groups, it also decided to significantly boost its spending on donations to such nonprofits, such as a $25,000 payment to the National Puerto Rican Coalition. Its president, Rafael A. Fantauzzi, was among the signers of a letter sent in February from a group that called itself Friends of Herbalife, which defended the company’s business practices.
Dueling Donations
In recent weeks, the back-and-forth donations by the two sides have generated something of a bidding war.
For example, a top executive at the United States Hispanic Leadership Institute informed a member of Mr. Ackman’s consulting team in late February that he had already received a $30,000 donation from Herbalife. He then solicited payment of the same amount from Pershing Square in exchange for the group remaining “neutral.”
“Are you able to match the $30K we have received from Herbalife?” Juan Andrade Jr., the president of the Institute, wrote to the consultant. “If Herbalife says neutrality is unacceptable and wants their money back, are you able to replace it?”
One of Mr. Ackman’s consultants at Dewey Square suggested in a note to Mr. Ackman’s lawyer that “I think it would be worthwhile to keep them neutral.” But a spokesman for Mr. Ackman said that the company refused to pay Mr. Andrade’s group, arguing that he is paying groups to help find victims, not for their allegiance to his cause.

For now Mr. Ackman shows no sign of backing down. In fact, he has just agreed to increase the payments for the victim identification effort.
Mr. Ackman said that even if he decides at some point in the future to shift his investments and financially back out of the fight with Herbalife, he is not going to give up on the campaign.
“I am going to personally pursue the Herbalife matter to the end of the earth — meaning I think this company is a criminal operation, I think they are harming people,” Mr. Ackman said. “This is something that angers me. I am going to pursue that.”

Hedging Theory

How does one invest?

This elementary act keeps the stock market active. A person with liquidity, puts his money to work. The Dow has a value of $16,376.27 at 12:18 PM ET today. I remember when $6,000 used to be a high valuation many years ago, now it is almost three times that much.

Undoubtedly the Dow goes up as time passes, if that was all, I wouldn't need to think about Hedge.

Before going into the answer to the question, I consider one recent advance in Mathematical Physics. UCLA math professor, Terry Tao, proposes to solve  turbulent motion  equations, with the concept of a fluid computer, i.e., he proposes that a fluid, can be a universal computer. In simple terms, this means that fluid motion is more complex than previously thought. Mechanistic interpretations of mathematics, are not enough. We need complexity ideas, which always were part of fluid motion, but up until now, were not understood.

If even turbulent fluid motion needs to consider deterministic chaos, which is a result of non-linear mathematics, hedging needs it even more. In this note I start to consider Hedging Theory.

In a stochastic stock market, the price goes up and down, without apparent order. It seems as likely to go up as to go down, like the toss of a coin. If this is true, there is no need for Hedging Theory. As stated above the general trend seems to be up, even after discounting the effect of inflation. This has to be explained. A fair coin model does not give an increase of the total value as time goes on. There is more to this though. A simple demographic argument would be enough to explain the general trend up. More people putting their money in the stock, would produce a total higher valuation.

Another aspect that makes it necessary to consider the stock market anew, is the use of Information Engines. Now the investor can change his position at the nanosecond level, definitely entering into the realm of Physics, or more appropriately Econophysics.

The elementary act of buying a share with a hedging strategy has to be revisited.

earthquake pacific ocean - Wolfram|Alpha

earthquake pacific ocean - Wolfram|Alpha:



Magnitude 6.9



'via Blog this'

Sunday, March 09, 2014

Latest from Paul Krugman

It’s widely known that income inequality varies a great deal among advanced countries. In particular, disposable income in the United States and Britain is much more unequally distributed than it is in France, Germany or Scandinavia. It’s less well known that this difference is primarily the result of government policies. Dataassembled by the Luxembourg Income Study (with which I will be associated starting this summer) show that primary income — income from wages, salaries, assets, and so on — is very unequally distributed in almost all countries. But taxes and transfers (aid in cash or kind) reduce this underlying inequality to varying degrees: some but not a lot in America, much more in many other countries.

NYT

Chaotic Structure

Since Henri Poincare stated more than one hundred years ago, that the only surface in three dimensions that could contract to a point is the sphere, an effort has been made to decode the meaning of this statement.

Now Terry Tao, has taken an important step for this quest. In the arXiv you can read his proof that the classical Navier-Stokes equation does not have a regular solution in three-dimensions. One has to look into non-traditional approaches to understand turbulence. One possibility, which he considers, is to have a liquid universal computer, i.e., to have a fluid which can act like a universal computer, such that the eddies calculate how much energy flows to smaller scales, if we want a mathematical model that does not blow up, unlike real turbulent fluids, which may look unruly, but definitely do not explode in our faces.

In a similar vein Stephen Hawking, has recently stated that there is no information paradox, on the black hole event horizon, because deterministic chaos comes to the rescue. Non-linear mathematics can easily produce this behavior, without invocation to Quantum Theory. No need for a new theory, when classical mathematics can deal with loss of human predictability. Of course, one may need an Einstein-Rosen bridge, but that was constructed by the old man, when he was neglected at the Institute of Advanced Studies, maybe because he did not support the likes of Edward Teller, who wanted to blow up civilized people, with weapons of mass destruction.

Grisha Perelman finally found the way to avoid singularities, and proved the Poincare Conjecture, interestingly, with a series of constructs, similar to those used by Terry , who does not give credit to Grisha.

Now I get to the most interesting part of this note. Leonard Susskind, proposes a universal computer to calculate the complexity involved in the Hawking Information Paradox, very similar to Tao's liquid computer.

To my mind all these elements answer a very old question I asked myself.

How does the electron know where to go?

The answer is: There are universal computers all over the universe, not just in our cell-phones!

Stephen Wolfram at Urbana, and Harold V. McIntosh at Puebla, have done the heavy lifting computer work on which I base my conjectures here.

A New Era is Coming.

[1402.0290] Finite time blowup for an averaged three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equation

[1402.0290] Finite time blowup for an averaged three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equation:



The Navier-Stokes equation on the Euclidean space $\mathbf{R}^3$ can be expressed in the form $\partial_t u = \Delta u + B(u,u)$, where $B$ is a certain bilinear operator on divergence-free vector fields $u$ obeying the cancellation property $\langle B(u,u), u\rangle=0$ (which is equivalent to the energy identity for the Navier-Stokes equation). In this paper, we consider a modification $\partial_t u = \Delta u + \tilde B(u,u)$ of this equation, where $\tilde B$ is an averaged version of the bilinear operator $B$ (where the average involves rotations and Fourier multipliers of order zero), and which also obeys the cancellation condition $\langle \tilde B(u,u), u \rangle = 0$ (so that it obeys the usual energy identity). By analysing a system of ODE related to (but more complicated than) a dyadic Navier-Stokes model of Katz and Pavlovic, we construct an example of a smooth solution to such a averaged Navier-Stokes equation which blows up in finite time. This demonstrates that any attempt to positively resolve the Navier-Stokes global regularity problem in three dimensions has to use finer structure on the nonlinear portion $B(u,u)$ of the equation than is provided by harmonic analysis estimates and the energy identity. We also propose a program for adapting these blowup results to the true Navier-Stokes equations.

 This  blowup solution will have a signi ficant portion of its energy concentrating on smaller and smaller balls around the spatial origin x = 0; more precisely, there will be an increasing sequence of times tn 
converging exponentially fast to a fi nite limit  ,  such that a large fraction of the energy  (at least  for some small  > 0)  is concentrated in the ball  centred at the origin.






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Thursday, March 06, 2014

Ideas on Hedging (More Mathematical)

Hedging is a financial activity designed to protect any investor. Like any other social practice, (recurrent behavior in a given society), it depends on the society involved. Here I concentrate on the community of electronic trading participants, who have access to mathematical ideas and tools, which reduce risks.

Two examples are: Citadel, and Renaissance Technologies.

The important think to emphasize, is that human activities are subjected to the laws of statistics, as explained in David J. Hand recent book: "The Improbability Principle".

Unlike the old Classical Mechanics, with emphasis an deterministic behavior, we have to follow the guide of non-linear mathematics, as first observed by Edward Lorenz, for the same Calculus based mathematics, invented by Leibniz and Newton.

Another way to state the problem of hedging is: Predict with Stochastic tools.


Martingale (probability theory) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Martingale (probability theory) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:



"In probability theory, a martingale is a model of a fair game where knowledge of past events never helps predict the mean of the future winnings. In particular, a martingale is a sequence of random variables (i.e., a stochastic process) for which, at a particular time in the realized sequence, the expectation of the next value in the sequence is equal to the present observed value even given knowledge of all prior observed values at a current time."



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Quantile Hedging by Hans F¨ollmer and Peter Leukert

 Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin

Abstract. In a complete financial market every contingent claim can be hedged perfectly. In an incomplete market it is possible to stay on the safe side by superhedging. But such strategies may require a large amount of initial capital. Here we study the question what an investor can do who is unwilling to spend that much, and who is ready to use a hedging strategy which succeeds with high probability.

Introduction

The problem of pricing and hedging of contingent claims is well understood in the context of arbitrage-free models which are complete. In such models every contingent claim is attainable, i.e., it can be replicated by a self-financing trading strategy. The cost of replication defines the price of the claim, and it can be computed as the expectation of the claim under the unique equivalent martingale measure.



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Ideas on Hedging


A picture is worth a hundred words.

Value at risk - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Value at risk - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:



 "In financial mathematics and financial risk management, value at risk (VaR) is a widely used risk measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets. For a given portfolio, probability and time horizon, VaR is defined as a threshold value such that the probability that the mark-to-market loss on the portfolio over the given time horizon exceeds this value (assuming normal markets and no trading in the portfolio) is the given probability level.[1][clarification needed]"



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Hedging Problem

Let us briefly sketch the classical hedging problem in a stochastic model of financial market. The goal of an investor having an initial capital x ≥ 0 is to hedge dynamically a given random variable H which represents the payoff of a financial contract at some future date T > 0. He is looking for a trading strategy π such that the related portfolio wealth  at T exceeds H almost surely, i.e.

  (1.1)

A strategy π satisfying (1.1) is called a hedging strategy for H and it is well known that it exists if x is greater than the price of H. In the opposite case each trading strategy is able to hedge the claim at most partially, i.e. , and hence generates the shortfall  which is strictly positive with positive probability. The related shortfall risk which appears in that case should be minimized to protect the investor against the loss resulting from a low value of the portfolio.

arXiv

Quasar - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Quasar - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:



 "Quasi-stellar radio sources ("quasars", /ˈkweɪzɑr/) are the most energetic and distant members of a class of objects called active galactic nuclei (AGN). Quasars are extremely luminous and were first identified as being high redshift sources of electromagnetic energy, including radio waves and visible light, that appeared to be similar to stars, rather than extended sources similar to galaxies. Their spectra contain very broad emission lines, unlike any known from stars, hence the name "quasi-stellar"."



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Jumbo Black Hole's Dizzying Spin Twists Space

Jumbo Black Hole's Dizzying Spin Twists Space:



""If the growth is chaotic, then the spin of the black hole heads toward zero," Berti says. In that case, the black hole acts like a top given random kicks from side to side, which rob it of energy to spin."



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Wednesday, March 05, 2014

[1402.3725] On the shortfall risk control - a refinement of the quantile hedging method

[1402.3725] On the shortfall risk control - a refinement of the quantile hedging method:



 "The issue of constructing a risk minimizing hedge with additional constraints on the shortfall risk is examined. Several classical risk minimizing problems have been adapted to the new setting and solved. The existence and specific forms of optimal strategies in a general semimartingale market model with the use of conditional statistical tests have been proven. The quantile hedging method applied in \cite{FL1} and \cite{FL2} as well as the classical Neyman-Pearson lemma have been generalized. Optimal hedging strategies with shortfall constraints in the Black-Scholes and exponential Poisson model have been explicitly determined.
"



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Renaissance Technologies - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Renaissance Technologies - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:



 "Renaissance Technologies is an American hedge fund management company of about 275 employees and over $15 billion in assets under management in three funds.[3] It operates in East Setauket, Long Island, New York, near Stony Brook University with administrative functions handled in Manhattan."



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Convertible arbitrage - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Convertible arbitrage - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:



"Convertible arbitrage is a market-neutral investment strategy often employed by hedge funds. It involves the simultaneous purchase of convertible securities and the short sale of the same issuer's common stock."



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Convertible bond - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Convertible bond - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:



"In finance, a convertible bond or convertible note (or a convertible debenture if it has a maturity of greater than 10 years) is a type of bond that the holder can convert into a specified number of shares of common stock in the issuing company or cash of equal value. It is a hybrid security with debt- and equity-like features. It originated in the mid-19th century, and was used by early speculators such as Jacob Little and Daniel Drew to counter market cornering.[1] Convertible bonds are most often issued by companies with a low credit rating and high growth potential."



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Talking Convertible Bonds With Two Billionaires From That Other School - Forbes

Talking Convertible Bonds With Two Billionaires From That Other School - Forbes:



"Why is it such a good time? Two reasons: high stock prices and low interest rates. That’s all. These two factors, put together, mean that prospective issuers have the opposite of a Hobson’s choice. They can raise a lot of money at a trivial, or zero, interest rate. If their stocks don’t rise significantly, they will have borrowed the money for, say, five years, essentially for free. And if their stocks do rise significantly, well, would it really such a bad thing for Facebook to sell $10 billion worth of stock at $100 per share, having sold shares at $38 in 2012? Would it really be so awful for Netflix to sell stock at, say, $650 per share, having sold shares at $70 in 2011?"

Which brings me back to Ken Griffin.  It’s largely because of him that these deals are there for the taking.  A lot of people who never heard of Ken Griffin before this week know his name now because of his contribution to his alma mater. I still can’t bring myself to say its name.  Back in the late 1980’s, Ken created convertible-bond lore by trading the bonds from his dorm room.  He figured out that convertibles were frequently worth substantially more than their market price. Back then, convertibles were seen as little more than stock substitutes with bigger income streams.  Most of the analysis used to value them was incredibly rudimentary.

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Saturday, March 01, 2014

From the Pyramid to the Square

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THE Egyptian strongman Field Marshal Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi was recently in Moscow visiting with Russian strongman Vladimir Putin. Putin reportedly offered Sisi $2 billion in arms — just what a country like Egypt, where half the women can’t read, needs. The whole meeting struck me as so 1960s, so Nasser meets Khrushchev — two strongmen bucking each other up in the age of strong people and superempowered individuals. Rather than discuss arms sales, Sisi and Putin should have watched a movie together.
Specifically, Sisi should have brought a copy of “The Square” — the first Egyptian film ever nominated for an Oscar. It’s up this year. Sisi has a copy. Or, to be more precise, his film censor’s office does. For the last few months, the Egyptian authorities have been weighing whether to let the film — an inspiring and gripping documentary that follows six activists from the earliest days of the Tahrir Square revolution in 2011 until the Muslim Brotherhood was ousted by Sisi in 2013 — to be shown in Egypt.
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“The Square,” about the revolution in Egypt, might be a good movie for Vladimir Putin and other strongmen to see. CreditNetflix/Noujaim Films, via Associated Press
Meanwhile, pirated and downloaded copies of the film, which is also on Netflix, have spread virally across Egypt and been viewed by many Egyptians in homes and coffeeshops and discussed on social media. What’s more, it was recently dubbed into Ukrainian and downloaded (some 300,000 times) by protesters there and shown in the Maidan, which also means the Square, in Kiev. A dubbed version is now spreading in Russia, too, said the film’s director Jehane Noujaim, who also directed “Control Room.”
“This is the globalization of defiance,” Noujaim said to me. “With cheap, affordable cameras and Internet connections, anyone now can change the conversation” anywhere. It’s true.
The film resonates with those who gathered in squares from Cairo to Caracas to Kiev, added the film’s producer, Karim Amer, because it captures an increasingly universal phenomenon: average people uniting and deciding “that the Pharaoh, the strongman, won’t protect us” and the religious sheikh “won’t cleanse us.” We can be and must be “authors of our own story.” It has long been said, added Amer, that “history is written by the victors. Not anymore.” Now versions can come from anywhere and anyone. Power is shifting “from the pyramid to the square” — from strongmen to strong people — “and that is a big shift.”
And that’s why Putin and Sisi need to see the film. (Disclosure: the filmmakers are friends of mine, and I have been discussing their project with them for two years.) It captures some of the most important shifts happening today, starting with fact that in today’s hyperconnected world wealth is getting concentrated at the top, but, at the same time, power is getting distributed at the bottom and transparency is being injected everywhere. No palace will remain hidden by high walls, not even the giant one reportedly being built for Putin on the Black Sea.
But people now can’t just see in, they can see far — how everybody else is living. And as Tahrir and Kiev demonstrate, young people will no longer tolerate leaders who deprive them of the tools and space to realize their full potential. The Square has a Facebook page where Egyptians are invited to answer questions, including: “Who would you most like to watch this movie with?” One answer, from Magda Elmaghrabi, probably spoke for many: “I would watch it with my dad who passed away 9 years ago. He emigrated to the States not for lack of wealth, but for his fears of what would happen in the future for Egypt and whether there would be opportunities for my 2 older brothers. I would love to have discussed what occurred and see his emotional reaction as the Egyptians stood up for what they believed in.”

Another reason Putin, Sisi and all their protesters need to see “The Square” is that it doesn’t have a happy ending — for anyone, not yet. Why?
The Egyptian protesters got sidelined by the army, because while they all wanted to oust the Pharaoh, they couldn’t agree on a broader reform agenda and translate that into a governing majority. But Putin and Sisi will also lose if they don’t change, because there is no stable progress without inclusive politics and economics. I understand the need and longing by those not in the squares for “stability” and “order.” Putin and Sisi both rose to power on that longing for stability after so much revolutionary ferment. But both men have to be asked: Stability to do what? To go where? To jail not just real terrorists, but, in Sisi’s and Putin’s cases, legitimate journalists and opposition and youth leaders? Many Asian autocrats imposed order, but they also built schools, infrastructure and a rule of law that nurtured middle classes that eventually delivered democracy.
So the protesters are long on idealism but short on a shared political action plan. Sisi and Putin are long on stability but short on a politics of inclusion tied to a blueprint for modernity (and not just rising oil prices). Unless they each overcome their deficiencies, their countries will fail to fulfill their potential — and all their “squares” will be stages for conflict, not launching pads for renewal.

Kremlin Clears Way for Force in Ukraine; Separatist Split Feared - NYTimes.com

Kremlin Clears Way for Force in Ukraine; Separatist Split Feared - NYTimes.com:



"Both actions, military and parliamentary, were a direct rebuff to Mr. Obama, who on Friday pointedly warned Russia to respect Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty. In the south, in Crimea, scores of heavily armed soldiers fanned out across the center of the regional capital, Simferopol. They wore green camouflage uniforms with no identifying insignia, but they spoke Russian and were clearly part of a Russian military mobilization. In Balaklava, a long column of military vehicles blocking the road to a border post bore Russian plates."



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