Friday, December 18, 2015

‘The Big Short,’ Housing Bubbles and Retold Lies

In May 2009 Congress created a special commission to examine the causes of the financial crisis. The idea was to emulate the celebrated Pecora Commission of the 1930s, which used careful historical analysis to help craft regulations that gave America two generations of financial stability.
But some members of the new commission had a different goal. George Santayana famously remarked that “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” What he didn’t point out was that some people want to repeat the past — and that such people have an interest in making sure that we don’t remember what happened, or that we remember it wrong.
Sure enough, some commission members sought to block consideration of any historical account that might support efforts to rein in runaway bankers. As one of those members, Peter Wallison of the American Enterprise Institute, wrote to a fellow Republican on the commission, it was important that what they said “not undermine the ability of the new House G.O.P. to modify or repeal Dodd-Frank,” the financial regulations introduced in 2010. Never mind what really happened; the party line, literally, required telling stories that would help Wall Street do it all over again.
Which brings me to a new movie the enemies of financial regulation really, really don’t want you to see.
The Big Short” is based on the Michael Lewis book of the same name, one of the few real best-sellers to emerge from the financial crisis. I saw an early screening, and I think it does a terrific job of making Wall Street skulduggery entertaining, of exploiting the inherent black humor of how it went down.
The film achieves this feat mainly by personalizing the tale, focusing not on abstractions but on colorful individuals who saw the rot in the system and tried to make money off that realization. Of course, this still requires explaining what it was all about. Yet even the necessary expository set pieces work amazingly well. For example, we learn how dubious loans were repackaged into supposedly safe “collateralized debt obligations” via a segment in which the chef Anthony Bourdain explains how last week’s fish can be disguised as seafood stew.
But you don’t want me to play film critic; you want to know whether the movie got the underlying economic, financial and political story right. And the answer is yes, in all the ways that matter.
I could quibble over a few points: The group of people who recognized that we were experiencing the mother of all housing bubbles, and that this posed big dangers to the real economy, was bigger than the film might lead you to believe. It even included a few (cough) mainstream economists. But it is true that many influential, seemingly authoritative players, from Alan Greenspan on down, insisted not only that there was no bubble but that no bubble was even possible.
And the bubble whose existence they denied really was inflated largely via opaque financial schemes that in many cases amounted to outright fraud — and it is an outrage that basically nobody ended up being punished for those sins aside from innocent bystanders, namely the millions of workers who lost their jobs and the millions of families that lost their homes.
While the movie gets the essentials of the financial crisis right, the true story of what happened is deeply inconvenient to some very rich and powerful people. They and their intellectual hired guns have therefore spent years disseminating an alternative view that the money manager and blogger Barry Ritholtz calls the Big Lie. It’s a view that places all the blame for the financial crisis on — you guessed it — too much government, especially government-sponsored agencies supposedly pushing too many loans on the poor.
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Never mind that the supposed evidence for this view has been thoroughly debunked, or that before the crisis some of these same hired guns attacked those agencies not for lending too much to the poor, but for not lending enough. If the historical record runs counter to what powerful interests want you to believe, well, history will just have to be rewritten. And constant repetition, especially in captive media, keeps this imaginary history in circulation no matter how often it is shown to be false.
Sure enough, “The Big Short” has already been the subject of vitriolic attacks in Murdoch-controlled newspapers; if the movie is a commercial success and/or wins awards, expect to see much more.
The thing to remember, when you see such attacks, is why they’re taking place. The truth is that the people who made “The Big Short” should consider the attacks a kind of compliment: The attackers obviously worry that the film is entertaining enough that it will expose a large audience to the truth. Let’s hope that their fears are justified.

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Argentina Set to Devalue Its Currency - The New York Times

Argentina Set to Devalue Its Currency - The New York Times:



 "BUENOS AIRES — Argentines were bracing themselves for a substantial devaluation of their currency, the peso, as the new president, Mauricio Macri, rushed to execute sweeping market-oriented changes intended to revive an ailing economy."



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Argentina

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Brazil’s Students Occupy Their Schools to Save Them - The New York Times

Brazil’s Students Occupy Their Schools to Save Them - The New York Times:



"São Paulo, Brazil — Brazil’s economy, a huge corruption scandal at a state-owned oil company and, more recently, impeachment proceedings against President Dilma Rousseff have dominated the news about this country recently. But it’s another crisis in the state of São Paulo that has the potential to shape democracy in the country for years to come. That’s because this crisis — a huge protest in response to the state’s plan to close 94 public schools — involves some of the country’s youngest citizens: elementary, middle and high school students."



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Fed Raises Key Interest Rate for First Time in Almost a Decade - The New York Times

Fed Raises Key Interest Rate for First Time in Almost a Decade - The New York Times:



 "WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that it would raise short-term interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis struck, a vote of confidence in the strength of the American economy at a time when much of the rest of the global economy is struggling."



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Yellen

Paris Climate Accord Is a Big, Big Deal - The New York Times

Paris Climate Accord Is a Big, Big Deal - The New York Times:



"PARIS — I had low expectations for the U.N. climate meeting here and it met all of them — beautifully. I say that without cynicism.

FROM OUR ADVERTISERS





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Monday, December 14, 2015

Benedict Anderson, Scholar Who Saw Nations as ‘Imagined,’ Dies at 79 - The New York Times

Benedict Anderson, Scholar Who Saw Nations as ‘Imagined,’ Dies at 79 - The New York Times:



"Benedict Anderson, a scholar of Southeast Asia who transformed the study of nationalism by positing that nations were “imagined communities” that arose from the fateful interplay of capitalism and the printing press, died on Saturday night at a hotel in Batu, Indonesia. He was 79."



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Climate Advocates See Need for Continued Activism - The New York Times

Climate Advocates See Need for Continued Activism - The New York Times:



 "Amid all the cheering over the landmark climate agreement in Paris this weekend, there were also criticisms that it did not go far enough, including from many environmental advocates who had been working for years to push climate change onto the world’s stage and inspire collective action."



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Hope From Paris - The New York Times

Hope From Paris - The New York Times:



"Did the Paris climate accord save civilization? Maybe. That may not sound like a ringing endorsement, but it’s actually the best climate news we’ve had in a very long time. This agreement could still follow the path of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which seemed like a big deal but ended up being completely ineffectual. But there have been important changes in the world since then, which may finally have created the preconditions for action on global warming before it’s too late."



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Sunday, December 13, 2015

Falling Short on Climate in Paris - The New York Times

Falling Short on Climate in Paris - The New York Times:



"Paris — THE climate news last week came out of Paris, where the world’s nations signed off on an agreement to finally begin addressing global warming."



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Saturday, December 12, 2015

The Climate Path Ahead - The New York Times

The Climate Path Ahead - The New York Times:



"At the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro 23 years ago, the world’s nations adopted a treaty that pledged, but ultimately failed, to cut the emissions driving global warming. In Paris over the last two weeks, negotiators from around the world met for the 21st time since then in an effort to move from aspiration to action."



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Obama

Nations Approve Landmark Climate Accord in Paris - The New York Times

Nations Approve Landmark Climate Accord in Paris - The New York Times:



"LE BOURGET, France — Representatives of 195 countries reached a landmark climate accord on Saturday that will, for the first time, commit nearly every country to lowering planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions to help stave off the most drastic effects of climate change."



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Friday, December 11, 2015

Poll Finds Kentuckians Split With Gov. Matt Bevin on Expanded Medicaid - The New York Times

Poll Finds Kentuckians Split With Gov. Matt Bevin on Expanded Medicaid - The New York Times:



 "WASHINGTON — More than seven in 10 residents of Kentucky want their new governor, Matt Bevin, to keep the state’s expanded Medicaid program as it is, according to a new poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation. And more than half of respondents described Medicaid as important for themselves and their families, underscoring the program’s substantial reach in the state and the challenges Mr. Bevin may face if he seeks to scale back or modify it."



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Empowering the Ugliness - The New York Times

Empowering the Ugliness - The New York Times:



"We live in an era of political news that is, all too often, shocking but not surprising. The rise of Donald Trump definitely falls into that category. And so does the electoral earthquake that struck France in Sunday’s regional elections, with the right-wing National Front winning more votes than either of the major mainstream parties."



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Thursday, December 10, 2015

A Learning Advance in Artificial Intelligence Rivals Human Abilities - The New York Times

A Learning Advance in Artificial Intelligence Rivals Human Abilities - The New York Times:



"Computer researchers reported artificial-intelligence advances on Thursday that surpassed human capabilities for a narrow set of vision-related tasks."



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Why the New Education Law Is Good for Children Left Behind - The New York Times

Why the New Education Law Is Good for Children Left Behind - The New York Times:



"THE No Child Left Behind law will soon be consigned to the dustbin of history. With a rare display of bipartisanship, Congress has overhauled federal education policy. The law’s successor, the Every Student Succeeds Act, is headed for the president’s desk, and he has signaled his intention to sign it."



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Senate Approves Overhaul of No Child Left Behind Law - The New York Times

Senate Approves Overhaul of No Child Left Behind Law - The New York Times:



"WASHINGTON — The Senate on Wednesday approved a sweeping revision of the contentious No Child Left Behind law, sending to President Obama’s desk a proposal that ends an era of federal control in education policy after 14 years."



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Wednesday, December 09, 2015

Rainstorms Batter the Pacific Northwest - The New York Times

Rainstorms Batter the Pacific Northwest - The New York Times:



"Heavy rains that began Sunday night have inundated the Pacific Northwest, making roads impassable, severing power for tens of thousands of people and killing at least one person.

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The Deported - The New York Times

The Deported - The New York Times:



"Kelvin Villanueva was almost home one night last June when a policeman stopped him for a broken taillight. From his truck, he could see his longtime girlfriend, Suelen Bueno, waiting for him behind the glass door of their apartment. She often did that when he worked late. Villanueva supervised a small team of Hondurans — like him, undocumented migrants — who did finish carpentry on construction projects throughout Kansas City. It was normal for them to put in 12-to-14-hour days. During his 15 years in the United States, he had never been pulled over. Still, Bueno worried. The threat of deportation did not subside with time. You just had more to lose."



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First Dengue Fever Vaccine Approved by Mexico - The New York Times

First Dengue Fever Vaccine Approved by Mexico - The New York Times:



"A dengue fever vaccine developed by the French pharmaceutical giant Sanofi has been approved for use by Mexico, the first approval in the world for any vaccine for the disease, which afflicts tens of millions of people around the world and is becoming an increasing threat."



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Monday, December 07, 2015

Amir Aczel, Author of Scientific Cliffhanger, Dies at 65 - The New York Times

Amir Aczel, Author of Scientific Cliffhanger, Dies at 65 - The New York Times:



"Amir D. Aczel, a science writer who took readers on a mathematical mystery tour in “Fermat’s Last Theorem,” his account of how a famous 300-year-old problem in number theory was finally solved in the 1990s, and went on to write more than a dozen popular books on intriguing scientific ideas and discoveries, died on Nov. 26 in Nîmes, in the south of France. He was 65.

FROM OUR ADVERTISERS





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Period of Soaring Emissions May Be Ending, New Data Suggest - The New York Times

Period of Soaring Emissions May Be Ending, New Data Suggest - The New York Times:



"LE BOURGET, France — Industrial emissions of greenhouse gases rose only slightly in 2014 and appear to be on track to decline in 2015, according to new data that raise the possibility that a period of rapid global emissions growth may be coming to an end."



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Exercise May Aid Brain's 'Rewiring' - The New York Times

Exercise May Aid Brain's 'Rewiring' - The New York Times:



"Moderate levels of exercise may increase the brain’s flexibility and improve learning, a new study suggests."



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The Not-So-Bad Economy - The New York Times

The Not-So-Bad Economy - The New York Times:



 "According to the economist Kevin O’Rourke, who has been doing a running comparison between the Great Depression that began in 1929 and the Great Recession that began almost eight years ago, the world has just passed a sad landmark. While the initial slump this time around wasn’t nearly as bad as the collapse from 1929 to 1933, the recovery has been much weaker — and at this point world industrial production is doing worse than it did at the same point in the 1930s. A remarkable achievement!"



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Saturday, December 05, 2015

California Attack Has U.S. Rethinking Strategy on Homegrown Terror - The New York Times

California Attack Has U.S. Rethinking Strategy on Homegrown Terror - The New York Times:



"WASHINGTON — The day before Thanksgiving, President Obama reassured Americans that there was “no specific and credible intelligence indicating a plot on the homeland.” Seven days later came an explosion of gunfire and the deadliest terrorist attack in America since Sept. 11, 2001."



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Fatal Miami Beach Police Shooting Is Caught on Grisly Video - The New York Times

Fatal Miami Beach Police Shooting Is Caught on Grisly Video - The New York Times:



 "Police officers responding to a report of a robbery in Miami Beach on Saturday fatally shot a shirtless man during a standoff that was captured on cellphone video."



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Miami

Viva vagus: Wandering nerve could lead to range of therapies | Science News

Viva vagus: Wandering nerve could lead to range of therapies | Science News:



"With outposts in nearly every organ and a direct line into the brain stem, the vagus nerve is the nervous system’s superhighway. About 80 percent of its nerve fibers — or four of its five “lanes” — drive information from the body to the brain. Its fifth lane runs in the opposite direction, shuttling signals from the brain throughout the body."



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Friday, December 04, 2015

Robust Jobs Report All but Guarantees Fed Will Raise Rates - The New York Times

Robust Jobs Report All but Guarantees Fed Will Raise Rates - The New York Times:



"Consider it a done deal."



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Republicans’ Climate Change Denial Denial - The New York Times

Republicans’ Climate Change Denial Denial - The New York Times:



"Future historians — if there are any future historians — will almost surely say that the most important thing happening in the world during December 2015 was the climate talks in Paris. True, nothing agreed to in Paris will be enough, by itself, to solve the problem of global warming. But the talks could mark a turning point, the beginning of the kind of international action needed to avert catastrophe."



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