According to the NYT, many professional investors were surprised. The stock market gyrated!
When events with low probability happen, we get a lot of Information. This concept, invented by Claude Shannon, measures the probability of events. It was used before by Ludwig Boltzmann in his Entropy definition.
I understand the downgrade this way:
American political life is in trouble. Donald Rumsfeld is being sued by Donald Vance. The second, a US citizen, like the first Donald, was tortured on orders of the first. Very powerful people like George Walker Bush, must be very upset with Barack Hussein Obama, POUS, for allowing the charges in a Chicago court.
I believe that the Irrational Tea Party Movement is a ruse to keep Obama afraid. It seems that the president lost the fear, and a real Civil War, just started.
Go Barry, Go!
BTW: Is all this related to the sudden illness of Judge Terence Evans?
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4 comments:
“When events with low probability happen ..” it is definitely most informative ..! (Bayes theorem may also be helpful) When conditional probabilities fail ..it’s time to take into account the probability of uncertainty. You’re right ..American political life is in trouble. Dr Gene would agree. Conventional wisdom no longer applies. Interesting to see you’re exploring alternatives based on principles of Shannon.
Mathematics explains phenomenology, that’s for sure. Bayesian statistics [link] explains the occurrence of low-probability events. Reminds me to adjust my thinking to take into account the probability of unseen forces. I still need to remind students that it’s not the local gas pump that raises prices, but unseen ‘global’ markets for barrels of oil crossing the Atlantic.
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