Donald J. Trump’s
support has plunged across the swing-state map over the last 10 days,
wiping out his political recovery from September and threatening to undo
weeks of Republican gains in the battle for control of Congress.
For
his party, Mr. Trump’s reversal in fortune comes at the worst possible
moment: Having muted their criticism of Mr. Trump in hopes that he could
at least run competitively through Election Day, Republicans must
decide in the next few days, rather than weeks, whether to seek distance
from his wobbly campaign.
Should
Mr. Trump falter badly in his second debate with Hillary Clinton on
Sunday in St. Louis, Republican congressional candidates may take it as a
cue to flee openly from their nominee, said two senior Republicans
involved at high levels of the campaign who spoke on the condition of
anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss private party
strategy.
Mr.
Trump has already slipped perceptibly in public polls, trailing widely
this week in Pennsylvania and by smaller margins in Florida and North
Carolina — three states he cannot afford to lose. But private polling by
both parties shows an even more precipitous drop, especially among
independent voters, moderate Republicans and women, according to a dozen
strategists from both parties who spoke on the condition of anonymity
because the data was confidential.
Continue reading the main story
Liesl
Hickey, a Republican strategist involved in several House races in
swing states, said she was dismayed by a sudden exodus of independent
voters in more diverse parts of the country.
“They
are really starting to pull away from Trump,” said Ms. Hickey,
describing his soaring unpopularity with independents as entering
“uncharted territory.”
Mr.
Trump’s erratic behavior last week after his poor performance in the
first debate with Mrs. Clinton — attacking a former beauty pageant
winner over her weight, and making an issue of the Clintons’ marriage —
has alarmed a number of Republican senators, including Mitch McConnell
of Kentucky, the majority leader. Mr. McConnell expressed concern that
Mr. Trump might not have bottomed out yet and could lose even more
support among women, according to a Republican official who spoke on the
condition of anonymity to recount a private conversation.
Interactive Graphic: The 1,024 Ways Clinton or Trump Can Win the Election
If
the roller-coaster dip in Mr. Trump’s standing has heightened anxieties
among Republican officials and political operatives, a steady if
unspectacular performance by his running mate, Gov. Mike Pence of
Indiana, in the vice-presidential debate on Tuesday failed to quiet
their nerves.
“Two
weeks ago I would have said Republicans would hold control of the
Senate, but there’s just so many seats up and nobody is getting
separation,” said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster, referring to the
number of the party’s candidates still locked in tight races. “It
worries me that we’re this close to Election Day and you’re not seeing
that separation, because it makes you wonder what kind of impact the top
of the ticket has.”
Other
Republicans are holding out hope that Mr. Trump can at least execute
what some cheekily call a “lose-close” strategy: holding Mrs. Clinton to
a narrow victory, and sparing other Republican candidates in the
process.
Jay
Bergman, a petroleum executive and Republican donor from Illinois, said
his fellow contributors were no longer optimistic that Mr. Trump will
win, and they have lowered their sights. “They want the guy to make a
credible showing,” he said. “They’re afraid that if Trump really screws
up and looks bad, then down-ticket, there are going to be a lot more
votes for Democrats.”
If
Mrs. Clinton wins, putting Tim Kaine, as vice president, there to break
a tie, Democrats would need four seats to take control of the Senate.
Officials in both parties see Republican incumbents in Wisconsin and
Illinois as likely to lose, so Democrats would need to just two more
pickups to capture the majority if they retain the rest of their seats.
Republicans
worry that Mr. Trump’s difficulties in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania,
where Republican incumbents are caught between their own base and
moderate voters appalled by the party’s nominee, could hand Democrats
those decisive seats. Senator Kelly Ayotte, the Republican up for
re-election in New Hampshire, demonstrated the vise she is in this week
when she said at a debate that Mr. Trump would represent a good role
model for children, only to recant a few hours later.
Sensing
new opportunity, Democrats intend to redouble their efforts to tie
Republican candidates to Mr. Trump in states and districts with large
numbers of college-educated voters and minorities.
“I
think it’s quite effective in New Hampshire, in suburban Philadelphia
and in Nevada,” said Senator Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat.
Compounding
their difficulties, Republicans are also fending off a challenge to
Senator Richard M. Burr in North Carolina, a state Mrs. Clinton is
determined to win, and have also become just as worried about Senator
Roy Blunt’s prospects in Missouri. Strategists in both parties who have
seen internal polling say Mr. Blunt, whose seat initially seemed safe,
is now trailing his Democratic challenger, Jason Kander, a deft
campaigner who has been helped by Mrs. Clinton’s narrowing deficit in
the state.
The
good news for Senate Republicans, besides Mrs. Clinton’s own
unpopularity and Mr. Trump’s history of bouncing back from
self-inflicted wounds, is that Democrats may need to pick up more than
just two seats to seize the majority. In Nevada, which has the only
Democratic-held Senate seat being aggressively fought over this year,
strategists in both parties say Republicans have an advantage in the
race to succeed Harry Reid, the minority leader.
Some
Republicans doubt the party will take the step of completely abandoning
Mr. Trump unless a landslide gap opens in the presidential race. In
that event, Democrats intend to appeal to Mrs. Clinton to spend more of
her time and money in areas where the party’s congressional candidates
are struggling.
In
the House, where Republicans enjoy a 59-seat majority, the party’s
strategists still insist that Mr. Trump’s effect has been limited; while
his poll numbers have fallen since the first debate, he is not yet seen
as so much of a drag on the ballot that he could send the party’s other
candidates to defeat.
House
Democrats, however, finished polling 30 battleground districts last
week — before the fallout from the first presidential debate — and
concluded that Mr. Trump remained toxic for Republican congressional
candidates. Geoff Garin, one of the Democratic pollsters who conducted
the survey, said undecided or wavering voters tended to see Republicans
as “putting party loyalty ahead of the country by supporting Trump.”
“Candidates’ support for him and unwillingness to stand up to him becomes a black mark,” Mr. Garin said.
In
a growing list of House races, Democrats are showing ads that link
Republican lawmakers directly to Mr. Trump. A commercial in California
brands Representative Jeff Denham as “Donald Trump’s man in Washington.”
An ad in Orlando, Fla., describes Representative John L. Mica as having
“the same harmful views on women” as Mr. Trump.
Kelly
Ward, executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign
Committee, said swing voters tended not to distinguish between lawmakers
who vocally endorsed Mr. Trump and those who have stayed silent,
neither supporting nor actively opposing his candidacy.
“They’re
trying to live in this mushy middle, and I think that’s where voters
will hold them accountable,” Ms. Ward said. “The separation Republicans
think they will see from Donald Trump is just defied by history.”
A
handful of Republicans have explicitly sought distance from Mr. Trump
already. Robert J. Dold, a congressman from Illinois who has said he
will not vote for Mr. Trump, began running a commercial this week that
shows him switching off a television broadcast featuring clips of Mr.
Trump and Mrs. Clinton. And veteran Republicans have urged
Representative Scott Garrett of New Jersey, who is seeking re-election
in a district Mr. Trump is behind in the polls, to portray himself as a
check on Mrs. Clinton, though he has not yet done so.
Few
have gone even as far as Mr. Dold, fearing backlash from Mr. Trump’s
ardent supporters — and perhaps from Mr. Trump himself, who has
repeatedly attacked Republicans who have snubbed him. Indeed, at a
fund-raising event outside Chicago last month, Mr. Trump noted in a
biting aside that Senator Mark S. Kirk of Illinois, a Republican who
opposes Mr. Trump, was on track to be defeated, according to Mr.
Bergman, who attended the event.
If
Mr. Trump fails to recover, Republicans still question whether Mrs.
Clinton is capable of piling up enough of a victory margin to pull
congressional Democrats into office along with her.
Mike Shields, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a “super PAC” that supports Republican House candidates, said Democrats were unlikely to win races on Mr. Trump’s weakness alone.
“We
accepted that we had a challenging nominee,” Mr. Shields said. “But in
some districts where Trump is either down or has a very low approval
rating, they are not able to take advantage of it.”
Mr. Shields added that Democrats have “had to delude themselves that there’s only one presidential candidate running.”
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