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BERLIN
— Germany, an anchor of stability in Europe, faced a political crisis
on Monday after late-night negotiations to form a governing coalition
collapsed.
The
breakdown of the talks on Sunday night reverberated across the European
continent and raised new doubts about the political longevity of
Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, considered perhaps the West’s most
ardent defender of democratic values and freedoms.
“There is no coalition of the willing to form a government,” said Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff,
director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund. “This is
uncharted territory since 1949. We’re facing a protracted period of
political immobility. Not only is this not going to go away soon, there
is no clear path out.”
The
breakdown of the talks came against the backdrop of other forces of
instability that have been rattling Europe recently, including Britain’s
exit from the European Union and a Catalonia secession crisis in Spain.
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Now Germany, Europe’s political and economic bedrock, has added to the sense of uncertainty.
Ms.
Merkel met in private on Monday with President Frank-Walter Steinmeier,
who, as head of state, is charged with trying to break the deadlock in
coalition talks. He could also appoint a chancellor to lead a minority
government. If those actions fail, a new round of elections could also
be called.
The
potential for instability in Germany would be a major blow to the
European Union. Ms. Merkel has been the region’s dominant political
figure of the past decade. Her leadership is credited with helping to
guide the bloc through the 2008 financial crisis and, more recently,
with providing a powerful countervoice to populists across the Continent
and beyond.
Financial
markets reacted calmly to the turmoil in Berlin, calculating that the
German economy could power through the uncertainty. After opening lower,
the DAX index of major stocks closed the day higher. The euro fell
slightly.
But
some economists warned that the longer term effects could be more
severe. A weak government might be unable to agree on needed
improvements to infrastructure and the education system, for example.
“The
economic situation is very good,” Christoph M. Schmidt, chairman of the
German Council of Economic Experts, said in a statement. “But over the
mid and long term there are big challenges, especially the demographic
shift, digitalization, sensible development of the European Union, and
climate change.”
The political instability stems from the elections in Germany on Sept. 24, when Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democrats finished first. But their share of the overall vote dropped significantly, while the far-right Alternative for Germany party scored a record vote, entering Parliament for the first time as the third-biggest grouping.
Even
so, political analysts had expected Ms. Merkel to form a new coalition
government that would have allowed her to remain as chancellor. That may
still happen, but it will be harder now, and it is unlikely to happen
soon, experts say.
“Building
a government is alway a difficult process,” Mr. Steinmeier said on
Monday, reminding lawmakers of their duty to serve the people who voted
them into office. “I expect from all a readiness to talk to make
agreeing a government possible in the near future,” he added.
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Elsewhere
in Europe, the possibility of a weakened Ms. Merkel and of an
inward-looking Germany alarmed some leaders. The chancellor canceled a
meeting in Berlin with Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands. In
Paris, President Emmanuel Macron of France said that Ms. Merkel’s
difficulties were a serious hurdle to the partnership between their two
countries.
France
has “no interest in a worsening of the situation” in Germany, Mr.
Macron said in a statement on Monday. “Our wish is that our main
partner, for the sake of Germany and Europe, remains strong and stable,
so that we can move forward together,” he added.
Even
if Ms. Merkel’s problems leave Mr. Macron as Europe’s de facto
strongest leader — with weak domestic opposition in France, a
strengthening economy, and a good record so far on driving through
economic overhauls — the French president had been counting on Ms.
Merkel as an ally in his push to make changes to the European Union.
Mr.
Macron will be aware that his agenda for the bloc, which includes a
common defense force, a strengthened euro, and a joint finance minister,
stands no chance without German backing. He already seemed to have
established a strong rapport with Ms. Merkel. The leaders have met
frequently since Mr. Macron’s election; for the past six months, the
French news media has been full of images of the two of them smiling
side by side.
Ms.
Merkel had originally set Friday as the deadline for reaching an
agreement with the Free Democrats, the Greens, and the Christian Social
Union, which forms a conservative bloc with the chancellor’s Christian
Democrats. From the outset, all of those parties had differed markedly
on key issues, notably migration and climate policies, resulting in
strained talks that led to open sniping between some participants.
After they agreed to take talks into overtime, negotiators and party leaders failed to produce any breakthroughs over the weekend, and the Free Democrats quit the talks.
Ms.
Merkel could try to approach the Social Democrats about forming a
coalition. But the center-left party has served as the junior coalition
partner to the Christian Democrats since 2013 and on Monday, the party’s
leader, Martin Schulz, said his group had no interest in another round.
Should
Mr. Steinmeier decide to nominate a chancellor, it would most likely be
Ms. Merkel, given that her party has the largest bloc in Parliament.
She would then need to be confirmed by lawmakers, but would be left with
a minority government. But such a constellation would require alliances
she continually seek alliances with other partners, robbing Germans of
the governmental stability they have known since the end of World War
II.
Despite the difficulties presented by the possible solutions, experts said calling a snap election would be a last resort.
Follow Melissa Eddy and Katrin Bennhold on Twitter: @meddynyt and @kbennhold.
Melissa Eddy reported from Berlin, and Katrin Bennhold from London. Jack Ewing contributed reporting from Frankfurt, and Adam Nossiter from Paris.
NYT
Melissa Eddy reported from Berlin, and Katrin Bennhold from London. Jack Ewing contributed reporting from Frankfurt, and Adam Nossiter from Paris.
NYT
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