Election Needles: Georgia Senate Runoffs
Election Needles: Georgia Senate Runoffs
Democrats need to win both runoff races to control the Senate.
Warnock vs. Loeffler
Ossoff vs. Perdue
Warnock vs. Loeffler
Georgia
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est.
Ossoff vs. Perdue
Georgia
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| Warnock vs. Loeffler | Ossoff vs. Perdue |
|---|---|
| Current estimate | Current estimate |
| Log of Needle changes | Log of Needle changes |
| Map of votes remaining | Map of votes remaining |
| Share of vote left | Share of vote left |
| Estimates over time | Estimates over time |
U.S. Senate Special
Warnock vs. Loeffler
Win Prob.
Margin. Est.
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How the needle estimates have changed so far:
The table below shows our expectations for results, based on where they came from; the type of vote; and other results already reported. How these expectations compare with reality shifts our estimate of how the state is leaning.
| New Votes | Vote Types | Expected | Actual | New estimate of final margin |
|---|
Where votes remain
For precincts that have not yet reported all their votes, we make an estimate based on the results so far, what voting methods are left, and what we know about the people who live in those places.
| Vote type | Votes counted | Est. pct of all votes | Leader | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This model is currently disabled. | Election day | – | – | – | |||
| Mail-in | – | – | – | ||||
| Early vote | – | – | – | ||||
| Total | – | – | – | ||||
| Vote type | Est. votes remaining | Est. pct of all votes | Est. leader | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This model is currently disabled. | Election day | – | – | – | |||
| Mail-in | – | – | – | ||||
| Early vote | – | – | – | ||||
| Total | – | – | – | ||||
Warnock vs. Loeffler, margin estimates over time
Once a state has counted all its votes, our estimated margin and the reported margin will match. As a rule, when our estimated margin is steady in the presence of new data, our forecast is more trustworthy.
Est. margin
Warnock vs. Loeffler, win percentage over time
Estimated share of total votes counted
U.S. Senate Runoff
Ossoff vs. Perdue
Win Prob.
Margin. Est.
—
How the needle estimates have changed so far:
The table below shows our expectations for results, based on where they came from; the type of vote; and other results already reported. How these expectations compare with reality shifts our estimate of how the state is leaning.
| New Votes | Vote Types | Expected | Actual | New estimate of final margin |
|---|
Where votes remain
For precincts that have not yet reported all their votes, we make an estimate based on the results so far, what voting methods are left, and what we know about the people who live in those places.
| Vote type | Votes counted | Est. pct of all votes | Leader | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This model is currently disabled. | Election day | – | – | – | |||
| Mail-in | – | – | – | ||||
| Early vote | – | – | – | ||||
| Total | – | – | – | ||||
| Vote type | Est. votes remaining | Est. pct of all votes | Est. leader | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This model is currently disabled. | Election day | – | – | – | |||
| Mail-in | – | – | – | ||||
| Early vote | – | – | – | ||||
| Total | – | – | – | ||||
Ossoff vs. Perdue, margin estimates over time
Once a state has counted all its votes, our estimated margin and the reported margin will match. As a rule, when our estimated margin is steady in the presence of new data, our forecast is more trustworthy.
Est. margin
Ossoff vs. Perdue, win percentage over time
Estimated share of total votes counted
Latest updates
Georgia’s Senate races were the two most expensive congressional races ever, with a combined cost of more than $800 million, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
If the vote tallies continue on the current trajectory to an Ossoff victory, the 33-year-old would become the youngest senator elected in 40 years.
In the past year Atlanta has lost the civil rights giants John Lewis, Joseph Lowery and C.T. Vivian. Warnock, who preaches at Martin Luther King Jr.’s church, has positioned himself as a bearer of their torch.
Warnock has called on Congress to restore the Voting Rights Act. He served as chairman of the New Georgia Project, a voting rights group established by Stacey Abrams.
In his stump speech, Warnock emphasized his childhood in a Savannah housing project and how his father got him up early every morning and told him to “put your shoes on.”
One of the most interesting things to watch Wednesday in Washington: Will McConnell continue to show deference to Trump? Will he blame him if the G.O.P. loses its Senate majority?
Ossoff’s lead continues to grow. He’s now up by 12,806 votes. That’s larger than Biden’s victory in the state in November.
Perdue campaign claims in new statement that they believe they won and will use “every available resource and exhaust every recourse to ensure all legally cast ballots are properly counted” — echoing Trump.
The state of Georgia has not had a Democratic U.S. senator since early 2005, when Zell Miller, who endorsed George W. Bush in 2004, retired.
How long before we get to the Republican infighting on whether Trump’s false claim of a stolen election suppressed G.O.P. turnout?
Mitch McConnell is going to have a heck of a day on Wednesday.
Ossoff’s new lead has grown to 9,527 votes.
If Ossoff also wins, will Dems try to recruit Republican senators to switch sides and join a new majority party? There’s precedent and it is now the Trump Republican Party, so some might be tempted.
Warnock’s win comes after Republicans relentlessly attacked him as a radical and Marxist. But his win could ultimately give more power to Democratic moderates in a divided Senate.
Warnock has just broken a particularly important barrier given the history of the Jim Crow South. Read more ›
When Raphael Warnock was born, his senators were the segregationists Herman Talmadge and Richard Russell. He will now be the first Black Senator from Georgia.
Democrats have moved a major step closer to capturing control of the Senate as the Rev. Raphael Warnock has won his hard-fought runoff election in Georgia.
With more votes coming in, Jon Ossoff has now taken a slight lead over David Perdue, with 97 percent of the estimated votes counted.
The Ossoff campaign said “we fully expect” to win the election, adding: “The outstanding vote is squarely in parts of the state where Jon’s performance has been dominant.”
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