Opinion Trump is losing steam. That’s reason for Biden to bow out in 2024.
The episode is just the latest sign that Trump should no longer be considered the inevitable GOP nominee for 2024. That’s good news for the country — and reason for President Biden to bow out.
It’s not only right-wing commentators who are showing signs of Trump fatigue. Recent polling shows DeSantis tied or leading Trump in a hypothetical primary matchup in Florida. Even more troubling for Trump, the latest NBC News national poll shows that 62 percent of Republicans identify with the party, compared with only 30 percent who identify with Trump. That’s a huge shift from a year ago, when 50 percent identified with the party and 43 percent identified with Trump.
This does not mean the GOP is moving away from MAGA conspiracy theories, election denial or know-nothingism. One need only take a look at the nearly 300 election deniers on the ballot this year to understand that the MAGA cult remains intact.
But increasingly, Republicans seem bored or frustrated with Trump. After all, it seems every Trump rally is about his grievances, his enemies or his vows to take revenge for the 2020 election. Almost two years after the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, this is getting tiresome.
That’s not Trump’s only worry. Many big donors have had it with him. HuffPost reports, “Hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin, a leading Republican donor, says he won’t be opening his wallet for any potential campaign by Donald Trump in 2024.” Miriam Adelson, who along with her since-deceased husband backed Trump and the GOP to the tune of $100 million in 2020, also says she will stay neutral in the party’s 2024 primaries. Perhaps they are getting sick of the Trump show. Or perhaps they are nervous about the possibility that he will be indicted in the coming months.
That’s a reasonable fear. Contrary to what some MAGA Republicans suggest, an indictment would not be advantageous for a presidential nominee. It would be one thing for Trump to declare himself a martyr; it would be quite another thing for him to campaign while dealing with an arraignment or trial. Don’t expect donors and the 62 percent of Republicans who put party over Trump to indulge him as they seek to reclaim the White House.
Biden will be watching this play out as he weighs whether to run for reelection. He already has a strong legacy: two years of legislative success; the rollout of coronavirus vaccinations and treatments that allowed the country to return to normal; the strengthening of the NATO alliance; and the appointment of the first Black woman on the Supreme Court. That — plus the defeat of Trump in 2020 — is a record he can be proud of.
While Biden appears to be planning for a 2024 run, Trump’s declining fortunes should prompt him to rethink a second term (which would begin when Biden is 81 years old). Biden has suggested he thinks he would be the only Democrat certain to beat Trump if Trump is the nominee. That’s questionable; just about any functioning Democrat could beat him. But if Trump isn’t the nominee, then Biden certainly is not essential in a 2024 campaign, when he would have to defend his fitness and record.
If Biden believes he must run to avoid a Democratic free-for-all in the 2024 primaries, he should think again. Hard-fought Democratic primaries in 1992, 2008 and 2020 didn’t prevent a Democratic general-election victory. If voters have serious doubts about Vice President Harris, they would be fully aired in a contested primary. Younger candidates and fresh faces with broader ideological appeal can make the case for turning the page, exactly as Barack Obama did in 2008.
Biden once said he would be a “bridge” to the next generation. That will be even more true when he is 81. If Biden’s concern is protecting the country from a second Trump term, he should consider the possibility that Republicans are likely to do that for him. Moreover, declining to run for office would leave Biden as a revered figure in a party with an array of capable candidates.
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