Opinion Kyrsten Sinema’s surprise switch is an epic gamble
Sinema — who alienated many Democratic voters through her opposition to large swaths of President Biden’s agenda — was certain to face a Democratic primary challenger in 2024. And she all but certainly would have lost.
That leaves becoming an independent as her only option if she wants to remain in office beyond one term. But even so, Sinema will face a highly difficult reelection battle, because there will all but certainly be a Democratic nominee running for her Senate seat, and the Democratic Party in Arizona will all but certainly support that nominee.
“The Arizona Democratic Party expects at least one Democrat to run for the Senate seat,” a source familiar with the party’s thinking told me. “The party will continue supporting Democrats up and down the ticket.”
That goes further than the party’s public position on Sinema’s switch. The party’s statement stressed its welcoming posture toward independent voters and nodded to Sinema’s support for big pieces of legislation (such as the big climate and health care bill). But it also pointedly noted Sinema’s opposition to some corporate tax hikes and her refusal to end the filibuster to protect voting rights.
The statement captures the complications that Sinema’s move has created for Democrats. In the midterms, independent and Republican voters in Arizona were crucial to reelecting Sen. Mark Kelly by five points and to defeating election denier and Trumpist superstar Kari Lake’s gubernatorial bid.
Those voters are helping push formerly red Arizona into the purple or even blue column — something Sinema herself helped hasten. That, in turn, is part of an even broader shift in which the Southwest is growing more Democratic and becoming central to the Senate and presidential maps for Democrats.
So Sinema’s appeal to those centrist voters is something Democrats must take seriously. At the same time, Democratic base voters tend to be fed up with Sinema, which also can’t be dismissed.
Sinema’s gamble appears to be that Arizona Democrats would be loath to run a candidate against her. Under this thinking, with Sinema running in a three-way race, the Democratic vote would split and a MAGA Republican (such as Lake) would more likely prevail.
Or, if Democrats do run someone, goes this apparent gamble, Sinema could beat a MAGA Republican and the Democrat by picking up independent and GOP voters combined with moderate Democratic ones. As Semafor’s David Weigel points out, that would make Sinema resemble former senator Joe Lieberman (Conn.), who lost to a Democratic primary challenger in 2006 but won reelection as an independent (while remaining loathed by Democratic voters).
There is an element of clever brinkmanship here. Sinema’s spokesperson has clarified that she will continue to caucus with Democrats. This means Democrats still benefit in a big way from her presence in the Senate. Which might lead Arizona Democrats to feel pressured to get behind her in 2024 to hold the seat.
But Arizona Democrats are signaling that they won’t let that pressure dictate their actions, making a three-person race more likely. If and when Democratic voters nominate their choice for the Senate in 2024, the party would obviously have to support that person. Rep. Ruben Gallego is the most obvious candidate here — he quickly put out a statement blasting her decision — but others may seek the nomination as well.
With our politics growing ever more polarized, a Kari Lake-type Republican could hold most of the MAGA and GOP base and a Gallego could get most Democrats. Independents (most of whom lean one way or the other, despite their fabled image, especially these days) could mostly split between those two, leaving Sinema with little support, even as an incumbent.
So this is a major gamble for Sinema. It’s not clear she had any other choice. But she has imperiled the ongoing evolution of Arizona into a Democratic state, which has been a big and important development for what used to be her party.
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