Opinion U.S. deal with Venezuela is the most constructive turn in policy in years
Moreover, the deal with Caracas will allow more Venezuelan oil to reach world markets — a top U.S. concern since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And it will go some way to curb the incentives for Caracas to cozy up to Russia, China and Iran.
That said, the criticism that the agreement is meant to serve ulterior U.S. interests offers a pretty warped analysis of what is, in fact, the most constructive turn in Washington’s policy toward Venezuela since the Trump administration started piling on sanctions in 2017 to cripple its oil industry and bring the country to its knees.
Among the sanctions’ major achievements has been an economy in free fall. Today, the Venezuelan economy is only about one-third as big as it was in 2015. In 2013, the year Maduro came to power, its gross domestic product per person was 20 percent larger than the South American average. Venezuela is now, by a substantial margin, the poorest country in the region.
Inflation is rampant, and people are experiencing acute shortages of fuel, medicine and other necessities. Unsurprisingly, nearly 8 million desperate Venezuelans — about 1 in 4 — have left, seeking refuge mostly in Colombia and other Latin American countries. Several hundred thousand have arrived in the United States.
What six years of economy-wide sanctions have not done is end the Maduro regime and restore Venezuela to democracy, as intended. Even when accepting the grim logic behind these sorts of policies — that causing extreme hardship on a population will lead it to rise up and topple the undesirable autocrat — it’s hard not to view the punishment as not just inhumane but pointless as well.
Venezuela’s collapse is not all Washington’s doing, of course. Mismanagement by Maduro’s dictatorial government surely shares responsibility for the disaster. But even the U.S. Government Accountability Office acknowledges that the volley of sanctions against Venezuela’s central bank and oil and gold-mining industries, among others, as well as investors dealing in Venezuelan debt, “likely contributed” to its steep decline.
In this light, the Biden administration’s decision to offer Venezuela relief in exchange for a deal between the Maduro regime and the opposition guaranteeing an election next year under international supervision looks like a victory of both common sense and humanity.
To be sure, the Maduro government will exult over the cash it will land when sanctions are relaxed and spend it lavishly to seduce voters. Washington must ensure that the regime delivers on its end of the bargain. Notably, it must release political prisoners and lift the ban on holding office it imposed on María Corina Machado, who won the opposition coalition’s presidential primary last week, as well as other potential candidates.
But the agreement is reasonably well-designed: The relief is temporary, and Washington has specified it is ready to reimpose a new set of sanctions as early as November if it deems Caracas is not meeting the terms of the deal.
This does not guarantee victory to the opposition. It doesn’t even ensure that the election process will be wholly fair. Yet the nihilistic argument that it is pointless to negotiate with an autocrat who would never relinquish power whatever the circumstances must be wrong.
If Chileans managed 35 years ago to rid themselves peacefully of their bloodthirsty dictator, Gen. Augusto Pinochet, why couldn’t Venezuelans peacefully rid themselves of Maduro?
The deal, as it stands, opens space for the opposition, so often fractured and ineffectual, to organize and mobilize its supporters. What’s more, the Venezuelan regime is not monolithic. The agreement with the United States offers an opportunity for its less die-hard members to evaluate the option of life without sanctions in a more democratic country.
The truth remains: Sanctions did nothing to dislodge Maduro from power, and there is no reason to believe they will suddenly start working. The offer to dismantle them, on the other hand, does seem to be an incentive for the government in Caracas to continue a process that could deliver a negotiated democracy.
If the deal ends a humanitarian crisis that has scattered millions of desperate Venezuelans across the Americas, that’s a good thing, too.
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