Opinion Here’s which states could benefit most from migrant labor
Economists, however, would point out that “burden” is the wrong word to describe immigration’s impact. The plentiful supply of immigrants is one of the main reasons the U.S. economy has outperformed that of its peers in the affluent world since the eve of the pandemic, accounting for the entire growth of the labor force. Without immigrants, growth would have been slower and inflation higher.
And still, some sense can be rescued from Abbott’s stunt: Offering the many asylum seekers waiting for their court date an opportunity to move around the country could, in fact, turbocharge their contribution to the economy. To make the most out of the opportunity, they must be allowed to work, and they should be offered the opportunity to go where workers are most needed. That would not be Illinois or New York.
The labor market is extremely tight around the country. In November, there were 9.5 million job openings but only 6.5 million unemployed workers, according to the latest data from the Labor Department. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is screaming about a national labor shortage. The shortage is not distributed evenly across states, though. Rather than ship the newcomers to New York, Abbott might instead offer them the opportunity for a trip with a job to the Dakotas — or Maryland, if he insists on hitting a blue state.
South Dakota’s labor market has been tight as a drum for over two years now, home to just 0.3 unemployed workers for every job opening in November — the lowest in a decade and way below the (pretty tight) national average of 0.7.
It’s been this tight in Maryland since June of last year as well. And also in North Dakota. New York’s job market, by contrast, has considerably more slack, with 0.9 unemployed workers per job opening. Only Nevada, New Jersey and California have more unemployed workers available to fill new positions.
Generally, it is the states with fewer immigrants that are experiencing the most severe labor shortages.
South Dakota is also suffering from an aging population. Its labor force is hardly growing. Just under 67 percent of the population is in the workforce, 2 percentage points less than a decade ago.
People born outside of the country made up less than 3.8 percent of the state’s population in 2022. It ended 2022 with 33,000 job openings. Yet it received barely 4,084 temporary foreign workers and their families in that fiscal year. It could do with a bunch more.
Nevertheless, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem is doing all she can to keep foreigners out, sending troops from the state National Guard to “stand alongside” troops from Texas at the “war zone” at the southern border.
There are other options. South Dakota may be small and hostile. But bigger states are in similar quandaries. There are two job openings for every unemployed person in Virginia. The state had 330,000 job openings at the end of 2022, but it received only 36,380 people among foreign workers and their families.
Immigrants already fill all sorts of jobs across the economy. Foreign-born workers took 30 percent of construction jobs in 2023. Sectors such as transportation and warehousing, accommodation and food services also employ a big share of immigrants. These industries need workers: Their job opening rates by the end of last year were around or above the national average.
Of course, for migrants to help, they must be allowed to work. That is not always straightforward. Migrants applying for asylum must wait at least six months to get work authorization. And bureaucratic backlogs mean that they often must wait much longer. Of the more than 3 million asylum seekers waiting for their day before an immigration court, many still can’t legally get a job.
Today, the newcomers are stressing the comparatively rich social safety nets of blue cities and states — which in New York, for instance, includes a legal promise of shelter — because many don’t have family connections or other resources to keep themselves afloat. New York would benefit if they were allowed to work. “We have an employee shortage in our city,” Mayor Eric Adams told members of the State Senate and Assembly earlier this month. “The federal government is not allowing them to work. And that’s at the heart of the problem.”
Helping ease migrant workers into the labor force might seem like a pointless suggestion given Republican unwillingness to contemplate anything that might help alleviate the pressure at the southern border. But granting them quick legal authorization to work and offering them a ticket to one of the many hot labor markets in both red and blue states would offer a win for migrants, employers and the American economy.
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