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Canada’s Liberals to Elect a New Party Leader and Prime Minister. What to Know.
Front-runner Mark Carney and underdog Chrystia Freeland, both established, centrist policymakers, are vying to succeed Justin Trudeau amid grave threats to Canada from the United States.
Two friends from Alberta, both with strong careers overseas and similar backgrounds, are vying to replace Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party and of Canada just as the country faces a generational crisis because of the Trump administration’s tariffs and sovereignty threats.
Some 400,000 Liberal Party members were eligible to cast ballots in their party’s important leadership race to decide who will succeed Mr. Trudeau and mark a new era in Canadian politics. Whoever wins will have to call a general election, which must be held by October, but could take place sooner.
The results of the election will be announced at a special event in Ottawa, the capital, at around 6:30 p.m. on Sunday.
Here’s what you need to know:
Who are the candidates?
The race is between Mark Carney, 59, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England and a prominent green investor, and former finance minister Chrystia Freeland, 56, whose resignation triggered Mr. Trudeau’s decision to step down. Surveys have shown Mr. Carney is the front-runner.
A third candidate, Karina Gould, 37, has been trying to make her mark as a future leader of the party, differentiating herself from the two others as more plainly spoken and more left-leaning. Frank Baylis, 62, a businessman and former member of Parliament, is also running.
Ms. Freeland and Mr. Carney share similar backgrounds and are both considered technically competent centrists with a preference for fiscal discipline.
Ms. Freeland had a successful career in international journalism but has been a prominent politician in Canada for the past 10 years. Her record as finance minister and, previously, foreign minister, is being closely scrutinized. Ms. Freeland’s detractors hold her accountable for not standing up to Mr. Trudeau, under whom she served, when his policies became increasingly unpopular.
She has tried to reintroduce herself to the Canadian public as a more grass roots candidate who has listened to critiques and will abandon unpopular policies such as Mr. Trudeau’s tax on carbon emissions.
And she’s pitched herself as the best person to stand up to President Trump as he launches tariffs against Canada, as well as threats against the country’s sovereignty. Mr. Trump harbors a strong dislike for Ms. Freeland — having called her “toxic,” “a whack” and “incompetent” in recent months.
Ms. Freeland successfully renegotiated the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement on behalf of Canada during Mr. Trump’s first term. The treaty binds Canada, the United States and Mexico.
Ms. Freeland is married to a New York Times reporter on the Culture desk.
Mr. Carney, while being in the public eye for much of his career, has not been a traditional politician before making his bid for party leadership.
He joined the public sector as a senior official in the finance ministry in 2004, serving under successive Liberal and Conservative governments, and was later tapped to lead central banks in Canada and Britain.
He was praised for his performance in both posts, helping Canada weather the 2008 financial crisis and steering Britain through Brexit, though critics accused him of inciting fear by suggesting that Brexit would hurt the country’s economy.
What are their campaign promises?
Mr. Carney’s plan is centered on boosting Canada’s economy, which has been hobbled by inflation and low productivity. The high costs of housing has become a central issue in Canada and Mr. Carney has pledged to build four million homes over several years.
Like Ms. Freeland, Mr. Carney also plans to jettison Mr. Trudeau’s carbon tax and replace it with a pricing system that would require industrial polluters to pay consumers to reduce their carbon footprints.
Ms. Freeland’s platform focuses on policy areas that have become liabilities for the Liberal Party, including an emphasis on tackling Canada’s physician shortage, increasing military spending and countering foreign interference in politics.
How will the day unfold?
Liberal Party members have been able to vote online after registering with the party and confirming their identity. Voting began on Feb. 26 and follows a ranked ballot system, meaning that voters rank their preferred candidates.
The system can produce surprising results if a candidate does not win outright in the first count. Some candidates and voters have raised concerns about the voting platform, after experiencing technical glitches in the identity verification process.
Results will be tracked on the Liberal Party’s website and are expected around 6:30 p.m. Supporters will gather at the Rogers Center in Ottawa, a convention hall not far from Parliament Hill, for the announcement of the results.
Mr. Trudeau, who will be capping nearly a decade as prime minister and 13 years as leader of the Liberals, is expected to attend.
The new leader will likely be sworn in as prime minister during the coming week. The proceedings are in accordance with the Westminster parliamentary system, which is followed in Britain and elsewhere.
What happens next?
What happens next is not fully mapped out and will partly depend on who the new leader is.
Mr. Carney is unelected and does not hold a seat in Parliament. His campaign has indicated he would call federal elections soon after being named prime minister.
Ms. Freeland, who holds a parliamentary seat, told The New York Times in an interview that she’d consider whether a quick election was a good idea given the continuing threat of tariffs and their impact on Canada’s economy.
Federal elections must be held by October in line with Canada’s rules. The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, had long maintained a 20-plus point lead over the Liberals in polls, but the gap has been closing since Mr. Trudeau announced his resignation and Mr. Trump started making moves against Canada.
The latest polling suggests that most respondents would choose Mr. Carney over Mr. Poilievre if he led the Liberal Party into the elections. Voters would also choose Ms. Freeland over Mr. Poilievre, though by a narrower margin, the polls show.
Polling also shows that Canadians prefer Mr. Carney and Ms. Freeland to negotiate with Mr. Trump over Mr. Poilievre.
Matina Stevis-Gridneff is the Canada bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of the country. More about Matina Stevis-Gridneff
Vjosa Isai is a reporter and researcher for The Times based in Toronto, where she covers news from across Canada. More about Vjosa Isai
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