Opinion Democracy is under threat in Mexico as López Obrador plans his succession
It’s a dangerous regression that could further damage Mexico’s already degraded political culture. At the same time, it also shows a potential path forward for the country’s beleaguered opposition.
For most of the 20th century, Mexico was governed by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). The PRI was a hegemonic party that emerged from the Mexican Revolution, and it built an internal system of presidential succession that guaranteed its hold on power. The successor was colloquially known as “el tapado” (“the covered one”), whom the incumbent president would at some point choose to “uncover” before the public as his political heir. This system was often criticized for being undemocratic, as it allowed the president and the party to avoid any input from the public.
At first glance, the methods used by Morena (López Obrador’s party) for selecting its presidential candidate seem to be an improvement over the PRI’s system. It involves a series of polls, to be conducted by firms approved by the party. However, a closer look reveals a more ominous picture. López Obrador has far outdone the PRI’s illiberal ways. The main contenders for the position are among the president’s closest allies: Adán Augusto López Hernández, his recent interior secretary and longtime friend; Marcelo Ebrard, his recent foreign secretary; and, crucially, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, whom López Obrador has long seen as a “political daughter” who is widely understood to be his chosen favorite.
The process imposes plenty of restrictions. The candidates will not be allowed to debate each other and have been instructed to avoid criticism of the administration. There will be no interviews with supposedly antagonistic media. “There’s an emphasis on control, not on competition,” Mexican political analyst Carlos Bravo Regidor told me.
The timing of the campaign itself violates Mexican electoral law, which disallows contenders from campaigning for the presidency before late November. López Obrador has turned to a laughable euphemism to avoid this particular problem: Morena is looking not for a presidential candidate, he suggests, but a “National Coordinator of the Committees for the Defense of the Fourth Transformation,” his chosen label for his ideological project. Euphemism or not, the president’s party is jeopardizing democratic fairness.
Electoral propaganda for all three Morena candidates is already plastered across Mexico. Sheinbaum’s campaign is particularly ubiquitous. Her slogan, #EsClaudia, is painted on miles upon miles of walls. On some, López Obrador can be seen raising Sheinbaum’s hand.
Lorenzo Córdova Vianello, who until recently headed the INE, Mexico’s electoral watchdog, argues that the president’s party is trying to “circumvent (in a crude way) the timetable established by the electoral legislation.” Córdova says the explicit timing rules for primary campaigns in Mexico “were thought of as a mechanism to avoid early promotion and thus generate conditions of equality in the elections.” By having its candidates on the campaign trail this early, Morena is bypassing the law and putting equal electoral opportunity in peril.
Many opposed to López Obrador worry he is preparing to govern by proxy. He has already set legislative priorities for the next administration and established what roles the losing candidates will play. (The runner-up will be expected to lead Morena in the Senate.) In this, he has also surpassed the PRI’s machinations. PRI presidents withdrew from power once their time in government ended. The party remained entrenched, but not the person. López Obrador, like many of his authoritarian peers, is sweeping away these distinctions. “He is clearly acting as if his power won’t end once his presidency is over. And that is very dangerous,” Bravo Regidor told me.
If all this bodes ill for Mexican democracy, it also offers a sliver of hope. Recent polls suggest the opposition parties — which span the political spectrum and include what’s left of the PRI — have little chance against López Obrador’s preferred successor if they choose to run on their own. So, they have decided to form a coalition.
Recent potential candidates offer hope. Xóchitl Gálvez, a senator of humble origins who has been an unfaltering advocate of the rights of Indigenous Mexicans, is particularly impressive. López Obrador has reacted to her candidacy by illegally leaking supposed details of her company’s finances, while others in his orbit have begun questioning her life story, a sign of her potential appeal as an opposition candidate.
All three major opposition parties will also choose their candidate mainly through polls, but the process could offer a clear contrast with Morena’s spectacle. Potential nominees need to collect thousands of signatures. They are expected to hold debates. No one will censure disagreement. The candidates, including Gálvez, grant daily interviews and are engaging in lively public discussions with López Obrador’s staunchest supporters.
If the opposition relies on democratic means to choose a candidate with a coherent agenda for the country and an attractive narrative, Mexico’s electorate might yet take notice.
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