Opinion Russia is extorting the West over grain. Appeasement will not work.
Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an intensive shelling of my city, Ukraine’s largest seaport, right after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain deal last week. The attacks have continued every night since.
In the coming months, the global food supply will be increasingly constrained, especially if Ukraine’s 2023 harvest is kept off the market. But what’s worse is that Russia might make progress on its larger strategy: to assert permanent control over commercial navigation in the Black Sea.
The West should make sure it cannot succeed.
The Black Sea grain deal reached last July was meant to allow agricultural exports from three seaports of the Odessa region. The U.N.’s Joint Coordination Center was established in Istanbul to enable the four signatory parties — Turkey, the United Nations, Ukraine and Russia — to inspect inbound and outbound vessels for potential arms trafficking and agree on corridors for ships loaded with grain to pass. Over the past year, the deal made possible the shipment of almost 33 million tons of Ukrainian wheat, corn and other cereals to global markets, with 65 percent of the exported wheat going to developing countries.
Russia has frequently complained that the agreement was one-sided in favor of Ukraine. On the contrary, the deal has worked out very well for Russia. The country saw a significant increase in grain and fertilizer exports, according to its own statistics. In 2022, grain cargo turnover at Russian seaports increased by more than 6 percent year-on-year, amounting to 45 million tons, while mineral fertilizers turnover rose by 25 percent, reaching 24 million tons. The indicators for the first four months of 2023 were even higher. From January to April, grain transshipment in Russian ports more than doubled to more than 22 million tons, and that of mineral fertilizer nearly doubled to more than 10 million tons.
During the same period, Ukrainian grain exports have dramatically declined. Ukrainian farmers’ crop yields have been decimated, with many of their fields indiscriminately shelled and mined. Meanwhile, Russia continues to export grain from the occupied territories. It has changed the port of origin for stolen grain shipments, spoofed electronic tracking devices, faked paperwork to evade international sanctions and mixed stolen Ukrainian grain with its own. Even as early as December, the estimated losses from grain theft exceeded $1 billion in lost revenue to Ukraine.
Russia is now demanding that Western sanctions be lifted in exchange for loosening its grip on Ukraine’s agricultural exports. Russia’s aggression should not be rewarded. Acquiescing to Russia’s demands would only postpone the moment of reckoning. Investing time, money and diplomatic effort in reviving a semi-defunct grain deal would only give Russia the tools to apply pressure later at a time of its choosing.
Instead, Ukraine’s Western supporters should address the root cause of the problem: Russia’s control of maritime routes.
Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey — NATO’s Black Sea powers — should send ships to escort grain transports through the Black Sea. Russia would be hard-pressed to forcefully respond, as it has lost much of its naval capabilities after the sinking of the Moskva cruiser and the liberation of Ukraine’s Snake Island. Unfortunately, signals from the Biden administration seem to rule out such an approach, and NATO members are not willing to get ahead of Washington.
The alternative is to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defend its seaports, its logistical infrastructure and its vital sea lanes. These include not only enhanced air and coastal defense systems, anti-ship and anti-submarine capabilities, but also jets and long-range missiles capable of striking Russia’s launch sites in occupied Crimea and in Russia.
Ukraine’s grain is vital for keeping the world fed, and Russia simply cannot be allowed to have a veto on whether it gets to market. The only long-term solution to end Russia’s policy of endless weaponization of world hunger is to firmly draw a line and stand by it. Doing any less would be disastrous. Negotiations won’t work. Appeasing an extortionist only invites more of the same.
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