Sunday, April 22, 2012

Hollande and Sarkozy Head to Runoff in French Race

Supporters of Francois Hollande, the Socialist Party candidate, cheered the early election returns in Paris

By NICOLA CLARK

PARIS — François Hollande, the Socialist challenger, eked out a victory in the first round of French presidential elections on Sunday, but his slender lead over the incumbent, Nicolas Sarkozy, delivered no clear answer about Mr. Sarkozy’s fate or the direction of a European power in an era of debt crisis, low growth and high unemployment.

As expected, Mr. Hollande and Mr. Sarkozy finished well ahead of eight other contenders and will now face each other in a runoff on May 6. Though opinion polls show that Mr. Hollande has a double-digit lead in the race, the showing on Sunday for far-right and centrist candidates fed hopes in Mr. Sarkozy’s camp that he could fight back and avoid becoming the first French leader in 30 years to lose office after one term.

With about 33 percent of the vote counted, preliminary results released by the Interior Ministry shortly after the last poll closed at 8 p.m. showed Mr. Hollande had secured about 27.5 percent of the vote in a field of 10 candidates, while Mr. Sarkozy, of the center-right Union for a Popular Movement, had 26.6 percent.

The race for third place, meanwhile, seemed to presage a second round that would be tighter than many opinion polls before the vote had suggested. Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front finished with an estimated 19.9 percent, above most recent polls and well ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the candidate of the far-left Front de Gauche, who fared far worse than expected with about 11 percent.

Polling agencies gave slightly different early figures, but the same finishing order for the top four candidates.

Voter turnout was about 80 percent of the 44.5 million registered voters, down from the 84 percent who participated in the last presidential ballot five years ago, which was the highest turnout since 1974.

Analysts had expected a strong showing for Mr. Mélenchon to favor Mr. Hollande in the second round. Recent surveys have indicated that more than 80 percent of Mélenchon voters could throw their weight behind the Socialist candidate. But the weaker result for the far left could complicate the fight for Mr. Hollande over the next two weeks.

Meanwhile, Mr. Sarkozy will need to walk a delicate line. Though two-thirds to three-quarters of National Front voters will most likely support the president in the runoff, analysts said a fair number might be tempted to abstain.

Under a gray sky and amid intermittent showers, many voters in Paris expressed the sense of deep ambivalence that had been reflected in the months leading up to Sunday’s contest. Neither of the two front-runners had managed to rally significant support behind his party or his program, setting the stage for the stronger-than-usual result for fringe parties on the left and on the right of the French spectrum.

Sunday’s results also suggested that France — like other developed Western nations — is deeply split over whether to keep pursuing austerity, as Europe’s governments have done in trying to master the euro zone debt crisis, or to try to stimulate growth and thus create jobs.

Mr. Hollande, 57, has sought to present himself as a “normal” candidate in contrast to the brusque, “hyper-presidency” of Mr. Sarkozy, also 57. But while the incumbent has seen his popularity sink, along with the economy, to record lows, his main rival has run a timid campaign that presents few major new initiatives.

“Everyone is voting, but no one is excited,” said Hervé Thiery, 59, a flea market vendor on the Avenue de Flandre in Paris’s working-class 19th Arrondissement.

John Hustaix, a 24-year-old student, said he had wanted to abstain but voted reluctantly for Mr. Sarkozy, largely out of concern that uncertainty about the consequences of a Hollande victory might cause turmoil in the financial markets.

“Nobody knows exactly what’s going to happen whoever is elected,” Mr. Hustaix said. “Hollande is not going to be able to enforce his program, and Sarkozy didn’t disclose specifics on what he is going to do, aside from immigration and security.”

This year’s contest contrasts sharply with elections five years ago, when three out of four French voters supported the mainstream. That campaign’s “third man” was a centrist, François Bayrou, who garnered 18 percent of first-round votes.

On Sunday, initial results showed Mr. Bayrou winning about 10 percent. Surveys suggest his supporters are likely to split fairly evenly in the second round between Mr. Sarkozy and Mr. Hollande.

Outside a polling station in the 18th Arrondissement, Antoine and Fanny Dubos, a young couple with a 2-year-old daughter, were split. Ms. Dubos, an art history student, said she had voted for Mr. Hollande because “we need a strong left right away” to defeat Mr. Sarkozy. Mr. Dubos, an urban planner, chose Mr. Mélenchon because he was skeptical that Mr. Hollande had the leadership skills to guide France through the current economic crisis.

“We are heading straight into a wall, so I say let’s give a sharp wheel turn and see what happens,” Mr. Dubos said. In the second round, however, he would support Mr. Hollande, he said.

A victory by Mr. Hollande next month would mean a change in direction for France, as Mr. Hollande himself acknowledged after casting his vote on Sunday in Tulle, the capital of his Corrèze constituency in central France.

“This is an election that will weigh on the future of Europe. That’s why many people are watching us,” said Mr. Hollande, who was Socialist Party leader from 1997 to 2008 but has never been a minister. “They’re wondering not so much what the winner’s name will be, but especially what policies will follow.”

Mr. Hollande has advocated higher taxes on the rich and an emphasis on growth over austerity, which would create strains with Germany and rattle financial markets already nervous about France’s debt. He has also said that he wants to pull French troops out of Afghanistan sooner than foreseen.

Mr. Sarkozy, meanwhile, has sought to stress the need for an experienced leader in a crisis and has mocked Mr. Hollande for promising billions of euros in new stimulus and benefits. In a bid to woo voters of the far right, he has vowed tighter restrictions on immigration and more protection for French industry.

Moments after Sunday’s results were announced, Mr. Sarkozy’s tough-talking party leader, Jean-François Copé, declared the final battle against Mr. Hollande engaged. “As of tomorrow, it becomes one on one,” Mr. Copé said. “It will be a very different game.”

Eleanor Stanford, Roswana Khan and Elvire Camus contributed reporting.

NYT

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