Friday, February 18, 2022

Ukraine

Russia, Ukraine and Biden Speech News: Live Updates - The New York Times
LiveFeb. 18, 2022, 5:15 p.m. ET

Live Updates: Biden Says He Is Convinced Putin Will Invade Ukraine

President Biden said Russia will target Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, in the coming week, citing U.S. intelligence. The Russian president said earlier on Friday that he is still open to diplomacy.

Bidensays the U.S. believes Putin has decided to invade Ukraine.

ImageA Ukrainian soldier near Troitske in Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine, on Friday.
Credit...Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

WASHINGTON — President Biden held another round of urgent talks with European leaders on Friday afternoon as the United States and its allies continued to warn that Russia was poised to invade Ukraine and trigger the largest conflict on the continent since World War II.

Mr. Biden said after the call with allies that he was convinced that the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, had made up his mind to invade within the next week, citing United States intelligence.

“We have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week, the coming days,” he said. “We believe that they will target Ukraine’s capital Kyiv.”

Tension in the region escalated earlier on Friday as Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine called for a mass evacuation of the area on Friday, claiming Ukraine was about to attack, a dire development that Western officials denounced as Russia’s latest attempt to create a pretext for President Vladimir V. Putin to send tens of thousand of troops into Ukraine.

A U.S. State Department official, who would only discuss the crisis on the condition of anonymity, said announcements like these are “further attempts to obscure through lies and disinformation that Russia is the aggressor in this conflict.”

Senior American officials also said for the first time that they believe Russia was responsible for cyberattacks on Ukrainian banks this week. And they warned that they are bracing for possible cyberattacks by Russia on American targets if the United States and its allies impose tough sanctions on Russia.

“We’ve seen troubling signs of malicious cyber activity this month,” Anne Neuberger, Deputy National Security Advisor for Cyber and Emerging Technology, said. “This recent spate of cyber attacks in Ukraine are consistent with what a Russian effort would look like, and laying the groundwork for more disruptive cyberattacks accompanying a potential further invasion of Ukraine sovereign territory.”

Yelnya

Russian or Russian-

backed military

positions as of Feb. 13

Minsk

Ukraine

BELARUS

RUSSIA

Klintsy

Kursk

POLAND

Kyiv

Lviv

Kharkiv

Boguchar

UKRAINE

Stanytsia Luhanska

Dnipro

Luhansk

Donetsk

Approximate line

separating Ukrainian

and Russian-backed

separatist forces.

MOLDOVA

Rostov-on-Don

Tiraspol

ROMANIA

Odessa

SEA OF

AZOV

CRIMEA

Sevastopol

200 MILES

BLACK SEA

Russian or Russian-backed

military positions as of Feb. 13

Ukraine

Yelnya

BELARUS

RUSSIA

Brest

Klintsy

POL.

Pogonovo

Kyiv

Lviv

Soloti

UKRAINE

Stanytsia Luhanska

Luhansk

Kryvyi Rih

MOLDOVA

Donetsk

ROMANIA

Odessa

Approximate line

separating Ukrainian

and Russian-backed

separatist forces.

CRIMEA

Sevastopol

BLACK SEA

200 MILES

Source: Rochan Consulting | Map notes: Russia invaded and annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. The action was widely condemned under international law, and the territory remains disputed. The dotted line in eastern Ukraine is the approximate dividing line between the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed separatists who have been fighting since 2014. On the eastern edge of Moldova is Transnistria, a Russian-backed breakaway region.

By Scott Reinhard

White House officials said that Mr. Biden will deliver remarks about the looming crisis shortly after the conclusion of his virtual meeting with allies. His speech, the second this week, follows a new assessment by American officials based in Europe that Russia has as many as 190,000 troops massed at the Ukrainian border and inside two pro-Moscow separatist regions — Donetsk and Luhansk.

Mr. Biden said just days ago that 150,000 Russian troops were ready to participate in an invasion. Friday’s assessment by the U.S. mission to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe indicated that the larger number includes military troops and other Russian-led or backed forces.

As unverified reports of Ukrainian attacks and acts of sabotage in the separatist regions filled Russian state media, Ukraine’s military intelligence warned on Friday night that Russian forces had mined “social infrastructure facilities in Donetsk.” The mines were part of an effort, the defense ministry said, to stage a false-flag attack and “create grounds for accusing Ukraine of terrorist attacks.”

Mr. Biden and the allies have warned for days that they believe Mr. Putin is prepared to stage fake attacks that could be used to justify an invasion. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the United Nations Security Council on Thursday that Russia planned to “manufacture a pretext for its attack,” possibly with a “so-called terrorist bombing” or “a fake, even a real attack” with chemical weapons.

In a joint statement, the foreign ministries of France and Britain said that they agreed with the assessment on Russia’s willingness to stage so-called false flag events.

Mr. Putin insisted on Friday that he was prepared for further diplomacy, but Russian officials said the country’s military will conduct drills over the weekend that include the launch of ballistic and cruise missiles. The test of the country’s nuclear forces added to the sense of foreboding in the region.

“We are ready to go on the negotiating track under the condition that all questions will be considered together, without being separated from Russia’s main proposals,” Mr. Putin said in a news conference on Friday alongside his close ally President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus, who was visiting Moscow.

Call for mass evacuation by Russia-backed separatists in Ukraine is an ominous development.

Image
Credit...Lynsey Addario for The New York Times

KYIV, Ukraine — As fears of an Russian invasion of Ukraine grew, the Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine called for the evacuation on Friday of every woman and child in the region, claiming that the Ukrainian military was about to launch a large-scale attack.

The head of Ukraine’s ministry of defense said the claim an attack was imminent was false, a ploy designed to inflame tensions and offer a pretext for Russia to invade. He made a direct appeal to people living in the region, telling them they were fellow Ukrainians and were under no threat from Kyiv.

The separatist leaders called for evacuation as state-controlled media in Russia released a steady stream of reports claiming the Ukrainian government was stepping up attacks on those breakaway regions — Donetsk and Luhansk.

The United States and its NATO allies have warned for days that Russia might use false reports out of eastern Ukraine about violence threatening ethnic Russians living there to justify an attack. The hyperbolic warnings from the separatists — who offered no proof of imminent danger — were greeted with a sense of urgency by the Ukrainian government.

The defense minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, urged Ukrainians in the separatist-held territories to ignore Russian propaganda that the Ukrainian government was going to attack them. “Don’t be afraid,” he said. “Ukraine is not your enemy.”

But Denis Pushilin, the pro-Moscow leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic, a secessionist state in Ukrainian territory, offered a starkly different version of what might be coming.

“Very soon, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky will order the military to go on an offensive, to implement a plan to invade the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics,” he said in a video posted online, offering no evidence.

“From today, Feb. 18, a mass organized transfer of the population to Russia is being organized,” he added. “Women, children, and the elderly will need to be evacuated first. We urge you to listen and make the right decision.” He noted that accommodation would be provided in Russia’s nearby Rostov region.

The leader of the separatists in Luhansk, Leonid Pasechnik, put out a similar statement on Friday urging people who are not in the military or “operating social and civilian infrastructure” to leave for Russia.

While Moscow and Kyiv have long offered wildly different narratives in the conflict, the call for some 700,000 people to flee the region and seek safety in Russia was a dramatic escalation. It remained unclear how many people were actually leaving the country.

Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has claimed that Ukraine is committing “genocide” in the eastern Donbas region and his ambassador to the United Nations has compared the government in Kyiv to Nazis.

On Friday night, reports of a major car bombing in the region and other attacks were broadcast across Russian state media. It was hard to independently verify the reports as access to Western journalists is severely restricted in the secessionist territory.

Social media was flooded with contradictory accounts and images that could not be immediately verified.

Some pictures posted online showed people lining up at cash machines, suggesting mass flight, while a Ukrainian official sent a video from what he said was a traffic camera in Donetsk, which did not show bus convoys or any signs of panic or evacuation.

Earlier in the day, Michael Carpenter, the U.S. ambassador for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, said that Russia was looking for a pretext to attack Ukraine and exploit the deep tensions in the eastern region of Donbas.

“Starting several weeks ago, we acquired information that the Russian government was planning to stage a fabricated attack by Ukrainian military or security forces against Russian sovereign territory, or against Russian-speaking people in separatist-controlled territory, to justify military action against Ukraine,” he wrote, adding that international observers should “beware of false claims of ‘genocide.’"

The U.S. will give Poland 250 tanks in a show of NATO unity.

Image
Credit...Nikolay Doychinov/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The United States plans to provide Poland with 250 of its newest tanks, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said on Friday, in a show of support for a NATO ally as Russian forces menace Ukraine, Poland’s eastern neighbor.

The tanks, expected to arrive in Poland in 2025 at the earliest, would complement another move: the doubling of American troops on the ground to nearly 9,000.

“It will also strengthen our interoperability with the Polish armed forces, boosting the credibility of our combined deterrence efforts and those of other NATO allies,” Mr. Austin said, referring to the M1A2 tank. He was speaking at a news conference in Warsaw with Poland’s defense minister.

The United States warned on Thursday that fresh shelling in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists could herald an invasion by Russia after weeks of tension.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said this week that the country was moving some of its forces back from the border with Ukraine, but Mr. Austin said that the reverse appeared to be true. Russian troops were moving closer to the border, increasing their logistical capacity and dispersing their forces, he said.

“All of the indicators continue to indicate that he will maintain the capability to launch an attack most any time,” Mr. Austin said.

Mr. Putin has sought to weaken NATO, but the weeks of tension over Ukraine have had the opposite effect, said Mr. Austin, who met with NATO leaders in Brussels on Tuesday.

“What Mr. Putin did not want was a stronger NATO on his flank, and that is exactly what he has today,” he said.

The significance of Mr. Austin’s announcement was the strong message it sent to Mr. Putin, said Samantha de Debendern, an expert on Eastern Europe at Chatham House, a British think tank.

“It is basically saying: ‘Not only are we not going to do any of the things that you asked us to do, we are actually reinforcing NATO’s presence on its eastern front,’” she said, referring to demands by Mr. Putin that NATO pull back troops from countries such as Poland that joined the alliance since 1997.

The U.S. says Russia’s troop buildup could be as high as 190,000 in and near Ukraine.

Image
Credit...Maxar Technologies/Via Reuters

The United States said on Friday that Russia had likely amassed as many as 190,000 troops near the borders of Ukraine and inside the separatist regions in the country’s east, significantly raising its estimate of Moscow’s troop buildup as the Biden administration tries to persuade the world of the imminent threat of an invasion.

The assessment was delivered in a statement by the U.S. mission to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, calling it “the most significant military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War.”

“We assess that Russia probably has massed between 169,000 and 190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine as compared with about 100,000 on Jan. 30,” the statement read. “This estimate includes military troops along the border, in Belarus and in occupied Crimea; Russian National Guard and other internal security units deployed to these areas; and Russian-led forces in eastern Ukraine.”

Russia has characterized the troop buildup as part of routine military exercises, including joint drills with Belarus, a friendly nation that lies along Ukraine’s northern border, close to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. Those drills, which involve Russian troops from hundreds of miles to the east, are scheduled to end on Sunday.

Moscow has also announced large-scale drills in Crimea, the peninsula that Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, and naval war games involving amphibious landing ships off Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, raising fears of a possible naval blockade.

The new U.S. assessment came after Ukraine called for an emergency meeting at the O.S.C.E., of which Russia is also a member, to demand Russia explain the buildup. The 57-nation body requires member states to provide prior warning of and information about certain military activities.

Russia has said the troop deployments do not meet the organization’s definition of “unusual and unscheduled military activities,” and has declined to provide answers.

U.S. estimates of Russia’s troop deployment have been rising steadily. In early January, Biden administration officials said that Russian forces numbered around 100,000. That figure grew to 130,000 in early February. Then, on Tuesday, President Biden put the number at 150,000 — with brigades typically based as far away as Siberia joining the force.

Germany suggests the Nord Stream 2 pipeline won’t go ahead if Russia attacks Ukraine.

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Germany’s foreign minister said the Nord Stream 2, a planned Russia-to-Germany natural gas pipeline, could end if Russia takes military action against Ukraine.CreditCredit...Pool photo by Ina Fassbender

As concerns grew in Europe over an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, Germany’s foreign minister suggested for the first time on Friday that military action by Moscow could mean the end of Nord Stream 2, a natural-gas pipeline running from Russia to Germany.

“We in Germany are prepared to pay a high price economically. That’s why everything is on the table — also Nord Stream 2,” the minister, Annalena Baerbock, told the Munich Security Conference, the high-profile annual trans-Atlantic security gathering that is taking place from Friday to Sunday.

Ms. Baerbock’s comments departed from the German government’s public comments so far during the Ukraine crisis, which had refrained from explicitly mentioning the pipeline as part of a package of sanctions that Western countries would impose against Russia if it invades Ukraine. That has irked Germany’s allies, prompting some to question the resolve of Europe’s largest democracy to bear the cost of sanctions.

Nord Stream 2, which is not yet completed, is owned by Russia’s state-backed energy giant, Gazprom, and is a sign of Europe’s energy dependence on Russia.

It is one of the largest infrastructure projects underway in Europe today, a 746-mile pipeline stretching under the Baltic Sea from the Russian coast near St. Petersburg to Germany. The project has gone ahead in the face of opposition from the United States and most European countries.

Russia has decided not to send an official delegation to the Munich Security Conference for the first time in 20 years, which some consider a worrisome sign.

The embattled Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is expected to arrive on Saturday to seek support and solidarity, even after President Biden said on Thursday that he thought the Russians might invade Ukraine in the next few days.

Russia denies any intention of invading Ukraine, and a conference devoted to diplomacy will no doubt chew over any possibility that, in Churchill’s phrase, “Jaw-jaw might forestall war-war,” at least for now.

The American delegation to the conference, led by Vice President Kamala Harris, will include Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken. Mr. Blinken arrived overnight and said that he expected to meet his Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, sometime late next week, as long as Russia did not attack Ukraine.

On the ground: In eastern Ukraine, people know the price of war all too well.

Image
Credit...Kostiantyn Reutsky

As rockets whistled across the night sky over the front line in eastern Ukraine, Kostyantyn Reutsky, a humanitarian volunteer, said he had arrived in the town of Kondrashivka around 3 a.m. on Friday.

He was there to check on vulnerable people, including a couple, Oleksandr and Kateryna. A rocket shell hit their home on Thursday around 9 p.m. They did not sleep at all during the night, and still could not find rest amid the stress and cold.

“The roof of the house was destroyed almost completely,” he said.

The couple have nowhere to go, he said, and are now living in single room that was undamaged in the attack. They have strung up blankets at its entrance to try to keep the bitter wind from biting.

Image
Credit...Nastya Gorpincheko

While many in the region have experienced sporadic shelling, Mr. Reutsky said there were no military facilities in this part of the village, and during all the years of the war, he was told, no shells had previously fallen there.

But the region bears the scars of years of conflict. When two schools were struck by shells on Thursday, they added to the tally of over 750 schools damaged since the conflict began in 2014, according to the U.N. children’s agency.

“Attacks on kindergartens and schools have been a sad reality for children in eastern Ukraine over the past eight years,” the agency, UNICEF, said in a statement on Friday.

The Daily Poster

Listen to ‘The Daily’: How Ukrainians View This Perilous Moment

A Russian invasion of the former Soviet state may be imminent. How will its citizens respond if it happens?

Russia warns of a ‘military-technical’ solution to Ukraine. What does that mean?

Image
Credit...Sergey Pivovarov/Reuters

For weeks, as Russian troops streamed from across their vast nation to take up positions threatening Ukraine from three directions, the clearest public warning spoken by President Vladimir V. Putin came on Dec. 21.

If the West refused to accede to his sweeping demands to renegotiate the security architecture of Eastern Europe, Mr. Putin said, Russia would “take appropriate military-technical reciprocal measures and will have a tough response to their unfriendly steps.”

The phrase was repeated in a lengthy letter that Moscow sent to Washington and published on Thursday, which said that unless the United States agreed to its security demands, Russia would respond by implementing “measures of a military-technical character.”

Which raises a question: What are military-technical measures?

The phrase has a long history — even if its current usage is shrouded in the fog of the Kremlin’s opaque information campaign.

The idea of a “military-technical revolution” comes from Russian military writings of the 1980s, according to a study from the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, an independent research institute in Washington that focuses on military planning.

The term was widely used in the former Soviet Union not only to describe likely future developments in military techniques, but also to identify earlier eras when fundamental transformations of warfare had taken place.

In the current context, it is harder to divine what exactly Mr. Putin is signaling with the phrase.

Asked last month what Russia meant by military-technical means, the foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, described them as weapons deployments.

Russian analysts have speculated that it could involve the deployment of modern Russian missiles that directly threaten the West — perhaps even in Latin America or on submarines off the American mainland. But the Kremlin has been deliberately vague.

“When we make decisions on this or that step, we always understand what we mean and what we are preparing for,” Mr. Lavrov said at a news conference on Jan. 14.

Greg Austin, who leads the Cyber, Space and Future Conflict Program at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, noted that Mr. Putin had made a distinction between “military” and “military-technical” during his Dec. 21 speech.

In an essay published this month, Mr. Austin wrote that “military-technical” could suggest actions that Russia could take without invading Ukraine. That, he wrote, includes possibilities like staging a naval blockade of the Ukrainian coast, enforcing a no-fly zone over parts of Ukraine, bombing Ukrainian weapons or missile-launch sites, or waging cyberattacks against Ukraine’s electric grid or other critical infrastructure.

In some of these cases, Mr. Austin wrote, Russia might cite similar measures taken by Western countries, such as no-fly zones enforced by the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq and Syria, or NATO’s bombings of Kosovo and Yugoslavia in 1999.

But Mr. Austin, like other observers who have tried to parse Mr. Putin’s use of the term, acknowledged that only one person knows what it means in this case: Mr. Putin himself.

Analysis: Trying to discern whether Putin is a crafty strategist or reckless leader.

Image
Credit...Alexander Demianchuk/TASS, via Getty Images

At this moment of crescendo for the Ukraine crisis, it all comes down to what kind of leader President Vladimir V. Putin is.

In Moscow, many analysts remain convinced that the Russian president is essentially rational, and that the risks of invading Ukraine would be so great that his huge troop buildup makes sense only as a very convincing bluff.

But some also leave the door open to the idea that he has fundamentally changed amid the pandemic, a shift that may have left him more paranoid, more aggrieved and more reckless.

A large-scale invasion of Ukraine, many analysts point out, would be an enormous escalation compared with any of the actions that Mr. Putin has taken before. In 2014, the Kremlin’s subterfuge allowed Russian forces stripped of identifying markings to capture Crimea without firing a single shot. The proxy war that Mr. Putin fomented in Ukraine’s east allowed him to deny being a party to the conflict.

“Starting a full-scale war is completely not in Putin’s interest,” said Anastasia Likhacheva, the dean of world economy and international affairs at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. “It is very difficult for me to find any rational explanation for a desire to carry out such a campaign.”

At home, Mr. Putin has always been keen to project the aura of a sober statesman, overruling the nationalist firebrands on prime-time talk shows and in Parliament who have been urging him for years to annex more of Ukraine.

And while he casts himself as Russia’s guarantor of stability, he could face stark economic headwinds from Western sanctions and social upheaval if there are casualties on the battlefield and among civilians.

The U.S. says it’s willing to risk being wrong over its warnings of an invasion.

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Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken told the United Nations that the United States believes that Russia plans to attack Ukraine “in the coming days.”CreditCredit...Justin Lane/EPA, via Shutterstock

MUNICH — President Biden and his top aides acknowledge that they are risking American credibility as they constantly renew the alarm that Russia is only “several days” away from triggering a land war in Europe that could plunge the world back into something resembling the Cold War.

But Mr. Biden’s aides say they are willing to take that risk.

They would rather be accused of hyperbole and fearmongering than be proven right, they say, if that’s what it takes to deter President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia from pursuing an invasion that they worry will not stop at Ukraine’s borders.

“If Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine, then we will be relieved that Russia changed course and proved our predictions wrong,” Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said at the United Nations Security Council on Thursday.

Mr. Biden and Mr. Blinken make no secret of their suspicion that their efforts to deter calamity are likely to fail. And their pessimism was reinforced Thursday by a series of escalations.

The United States’ assessment of what Mr. Putin is doing has also changed over time.

After the Russian leader issued a proposed “treaty” in December, it seemed that he had a bigger plan: to evict the United States and NATO forces from former Soviet bloc nations that have joined NATO and roll back the world order created after the Soviet collapse 31 years ago.

Then, two weeks ago, intelligence and military officials said that Mr. Putin was aiming at Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, after concluding that cyberattacks and subversion alone were unlikely to displace the government — only a full-scale invasion would do that.

So the Biden administration is trying to test Mr. Putin’s bottom line.

‘A whistling sound, then an explosion’: Shelling hits a kindergarten in Ukraine.

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Shelling in eastern Ukraine damaged a kindergarten, knocked out electricity and wounded at least four adult civilians and two soldiers, according to the Ukrainian military.CreditCredit...Lynsey Addario for The New York Times

STANYTSIA LUHANSKA, Ukraine — The fighting between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian government forces has been flaring for eight years. Daily skirmishes, mostly low-level, had become routine.

But an outbreak of hostilities on Thursday, coming at a particularly perilous moment in the tense standoff between Russia and the West, brought the fear of a larger conflict close to home for this dusty remote town not far from the Russian border.

The Ukrainian military said shells fired by Russian-backed separatists in the morning had hit a kindergarten, wounding three teachers but no students, as well as the playground of a high school.

“It was a whistling sound, then an explosion,” said Tatyana Podikay, the director of the school, called Fairytale Kindergarten.

The military also said two soldiers and a woman at a bus station were wounded. There were no reported fatalities.

In the evening, the sharp cracks of explosions echoed off buildings and flashes of light from incoming artillery shells silhouetted the trees. Out on the darkened streets, explosions echoed among the buildings. At least two volleys of a half dozen rounds each struck the town, arriving with a sharp hiss before exploding. Drivers stopped their cars, got out and listened worriedly.

Each side blamed the other for the shelling, which was viewed with concern in Ukraine and in Western capitals for its potential to spiral into a bigger conflict. Analysts said the nature of the shelling, which hit multiple sites along the contact line all in a single day, was unusual compared with recent months.

“Today it was long-distance and synchronized shelling,” said Maria Zolkina, a Ukrainian political analyst who works at the Democratic Initiatives Foundation. “It was simultaneous. This is notable.”

A timeline of the tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Two founding members of the Soviet Union — Russia and Ukraine — are once again at a flash point. Here are some pivotal moments that have led to Russia’s troop buildup on its western border with Ukraine:

February 2014 — Protesters in Ukraine overthrow President Viktor Yanukovych, who was friendly to Russia’s interests. During the revolution, more than 100 people are killed in protests that centered on the main square in the capital Kyiv, often called the Maidan. The interim government that followed this pro-Western revolution eventually signs a trade agreement with the European Union that is seen as a first step toward EU membership.

BELARUS

RUSSIA

POL.

Kyiv

UKRAINE

ROMANIA

Approximate

line separating

Ukrainian and

Russian-backed

forces

Area of

detail

Luhansk

CRIMEA

Black Sea

Donetsk

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

50 MILES

Sea of Azov

50 MILES

Approximate

line separating

Ukrainian and

Russian-backed

forces

UKRAINE

Luhansk

Donetsk

RUSSIA

Sea of Azov

RUSSIA

Kyiv

UKRAINE

Area of

detail

ROMANIA

CRIMEA

Black Sea

Source: Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe

By Scott Reinhard

April 2014 — Russia invades and then annexes the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. Two secessionist regions, the Donetsk People’s Republic and the neighboring Luhansk People’s Republic, break off from Ukraine. The war continues in the eastern Ukrainian region known as Donbas. It then spreads west. Roughly 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians eventually die in the conflict. The front lines have barely shifted for years.

2014 and 2015 — Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany sign a series of cease-fire agreements known as the Minsk Accords. Many view these accords as ambiguous.

April 2019 — Former comedian Volodymyr Zelensky is elected by a large majority as president of Ukraine on a promise to restore Donbas to the country.

2021-2022 — Russian President Vladimir V. Putin seeks to prevent Ukraine’s drift toward the United States and its allies. Mr. Putin demands “security guarantees,” including an assurance by NATO that Ukraine will never join the group and that the alliance pulls back troops stationed in countries that joined after 1997. Many Russians view the Ukrainian capital Kyiv as the birthplace of their nation and cite the numerous cultural ties between the two countries.

And here is a brief recap of their relations in the 20th century:

1922 — Russia and Ukraine became two of the founding members of the Soviet Union.

1932 and 1933 — A famine caused by Stalin’s policy of collectivization kills millions of people, mainly ethnic Ukrainians in a country that is known as the bread basket of the Soviet Union. The disaster is known as the Holodomor.

1941-1944 — Nazi Germany and the Axis powers occupy the country during World War II.

1991 — The Soviet Union is terminated via a treaty. Ukraine becomes independent and begins a transition to a market economy. It also comes into possession of a significant stockpile of nuclear weapons that had previously belonged to the Soviet Union.

Putin has already weakened Ukraine’s economy.

KYIV, Ukraine — Without outright declaring war or taking action that would trigger the harsh sanctions promised by the West, Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, has once again succeeded in destabilizing Ukraine and making clear that Russia could wreck the country’s economy.

The evacuation announced last week of American, British and Canadian citizens has led to panic. Several international airlines have stopped flights into the country. Russian naval exercises in the Black Sea have exposed the vulnerability of Ukraine’s critical ports for commercial shipping.

And as for real estate?

“The number of requests is fewer and fewer every day,” said Pavlo Kaliuk, a freelance property broker in Ukraine’s capital, who used to sell and rent properties to clients from the United States, France, Germany and Israel. In November, when Russia first began posting troops along the country’s border, the deals quickly dried up.

The anxiety coursing through Kyiv is exactly what Mr. Putin hopes to achieve, according to Pavlo Kukhta, an adviser to Ukraine’s minister of energy. “What they want to do is the equivalent of winning the war without firing a single bullet, by causing massive panic here,” Mr. Kukhta said.

Timofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics and a former minister of economic development, said his institution has estimated that the crisis has already cost Ukraine “several billion dollars,” just in the past few weeks. War or a long siege would only worsen the situation.

The first major blow came Monday when two Ukrainian airlines said they were unable to acquire insurance for their flights, forcing Ukraine’s government to create a $592 million insurance fund to keep planes flying. On Feb. 11, London-based insurers had warned aviation companies that they would be unable to insure flights to Ukraine or those flying above its airspace. Dutch Airline KLM, which had a plane shot down above territory controlled by pro-Moscow Ukrainian rebels in 2014, responded by saying it would halt flights. Germany’s Lufthansa said it was considering a suspension.

But the American response to the crisis has also infuriated some people, whether by creating panic with alarmist warnings of an imminent invasion or the decision to evacuate some embassy staff from Kyiv and set up a temporary office in the western city of Lviv, close to the border with Poland.

“When someone decides to move the embassy to Lviv, they must understand that such news will cost the Ukrainian economy several hundred million dollars,” David Arakhamia, the leader of the governing Servant of the People’s Party, said in a television interview, adding: “Every day we count the losses of the economy. We can’t borrow in foreign markets because the rates there are crazy. Many exporters refuse us.”

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