Europeans plan for troops to back Ukraine ceasefire — and want U.S. support
The prospect of troops in Ukraine gained traction as Europeans seek a role in talks between the Trump team and Moscow that could shape the continent’s security.
French President Emmanuel Macron is convening a meeting of some of the continent’s top leaders in Paris on Monday to spur more concrete planning on European support for Ukraine and to forge a consensus on a potential deployment. Macron held a phone call with President Donald Trump ahead of the meeting.
While Washington has ruled out U.S. troops in Ukraine, European officials say the Trump team has not excluded the prospect of supporting a European force — and has asked what kind of U.S. backing might be necessary.
The European requests include intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, and potential air cover or some help with air defenses to protect the force, four officials briefed on the discussions said.
A U.S. questionnaire sent to European capitals, about forces and equipment they could free up for Ukraine, has also spawned more serious consultations about the possibility in recent days, said the officials, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive deliberations.
The latest iteration of European planning envisions a “reassurance” or “deterrence” force of a few brigades, possibly 25,000 to 30,000 troops, who would not be stationed along the contact line but would stand ready as a show of force if Russian forces tried to restart the war, they said. The troops could be backstopped by more forces outside Ukraine in case they need to ramp up and move quickly.
France has done more advanced military planning than others and estimates that it could commit nearly 10,000 troops, although other European allies have so far been more uneasy or contending with constrained militaries, two of the officials said.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced for the first time Sunday night that he was ready to deploy British boots in Ukraine as part of a deal “if necessary,” which will pressure other European leaders to make similar pledges. He said that he did not take lightly the decision to put British service members “in harm’s way” but that “any role in helping to guarantee Ukraine’s security is helping to guarantee the security of our continent.”
France and Britain, the only two nuclear powers among the Europeans, have been at the forefront of the discussions, which have involved at least a dozen countries, including Poland, the Netherlands, Germany, and Nordic and Baltic states.
Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans told The Washington Post the plan would need more than just U.S. political backing. “You also want to have the escalation dominance,” he said, “if tensions would arise and if there would be any conflict. … And we need to have the United States on board.”
“It’s of course about security guarantees for Ukraine, but it’s directly related to our defense and deterrence within NATO,” he said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. “We have discussions among European countries and with the U.S. about what every country can do. Over the next couple of weeks, it needs to become more specific in terms of numbers.”
“It’s a big puzzle, with many pieces that we need to bring together,” he added.
Warnings to Russia
As Trump promised a deal to halt the war, European allies recently grew more open to the idea of sending in troops, which had triggered uproar when France’s Macron first suggested it last year.
European leaders have quietly held discussions on troops in Ukraine for months but have yet to draft a concrete plan, with some countries hesitant about committing troops or moving forward without more clarity from the United States about its intentions for Ukraine.
The European plans have gained greater urgency as Trump officials landed on the continent this month and made clear that Washington is more than willing to move without them.
European allies have been split on the nature of a deployment, including the force’s size and mandate and the extent of U.S. backing needed. Attempts to make military plans are also hamstrung by the fact that the parameters of a deal with Russia — such as the lines along which the conflict might be frozen — remain elusive or have not been fully articulated by the Trump team.
Still, officials agree that U.S. support would be critical and that they would welcome clear warnings from Washington to Russia, publicly or privately, against any attempts to attack the force or reignite a full-blown conflict.
Another key question for the Europeans is how to respond if Russia were to attack the force. One proposal was for a mutual-defense clause among countries involved in the European coalition, which would not operate under the NATO flag.
“It should be clear that the force is ready to hit back if it’s hit, and it should be able to ramp up quickly,” said a European diplomat.
“In a normal world, it would be too early to plan without the ceasefire conditions. But they are going to negotiate over our heads,” the diplomat added. “This is a means to say to the U.S. we are ready to give this if you do that.”
For many European states, a deployment would also require public support at home and draw on already stretched military resources. France has more leeway than others, including Britain, in freeing up troops, partly because of a French drawdown in Africa.
Some countries, such as Poland or Germany, have national elections coming up and are wary of making big moves at a time when Russia’s war in Ukraine has become more politicized. Some have also been nervous about taking risks without greater U.S. involvement. And the Netherlands, for example, will need approval from parliament.
“We do not plan to send Polish soldiers to Ukraine, but we will support, including in terms of logistics and political backing, the countries that may wish to provide such guarantees in the future,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Monday.
Chicken and the egg
The European idea also centers on boosting weapons and training for the Ukrainian army so it can hold what they expect will be an unstable ceasefire line. It could become a sticking point in negotiations as Moscow demands that Ukraine significantly reduce its military.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday he believes “we have made significant progress on the issue” of European troops in Ukraine, which he described as a coalition of the willing. “We want security guarantees not on paper, but on the ground, at sea, in the air,” he said.
Asked whether Russia would be ready for a European deployment in Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was “a very difficult question” on which there have been “no substantive discussions” so far. “It’s difficult to speak about that as it will be NATO member states and, thus, NATO forces deployed on Ukraine’s territory,” he said.
Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, visited NATO headquarters on Monday and will tour some capitals this week, when European officials expect to talk about a division of labor with the United States in Ukraine.
A Western diplomat described the talks with the Americans so far as “a chicken-and-egg game,” with each side waiting for the other to show their cards before declaring what resources they could commit.
Others believe the plan would give Europeans a key to shape the negotiations and lock Trump in because he would be loath to appear weak if the force is attacked and his deal unravels. “What would happen if they get attacked and Trump does nothing, it would look so bad for him,” a Western official said.
European officials say they have received mixed messages from members of the Trump team as they try to gauge who does what and how much sway each could have with the president
“There are different views in the Trump camp … and at the end of the day, he’s the one who decides,” a second European diplomat said. “It could all change with a social media post.”
Serhiy Morgunov in Kyiv and Natalia Abbakumova in Riga, Latvia, contributed to this report.
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