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Troop Casualties in Ukraine War Near 1.4 Million, Study Finds
With high casualty figures and the slow pace of Russia’s territorial gains, President Vladimir V. Putin could face years more of a grinding war of attrition in Ukraine.
Reporting from Washington
Nearly one million Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the country’s war against Ukraine, according to a new study, a staggering toll as Russia’s three-year assault on its neighbor grinds on.
The study, published on Tuesday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that close to 400,000 Ukrainian troops have also been killed or wounded since the war began. That would put the overall casualty figure, for Russian and Ukrainian troops combined, at almost 1.4 million.
Officials cautioned that casualty figures were difficult to estimate because Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, and Kyiv does not disclose official figures. The study published on Tuesday relied on casualty figures from American and British government estimates, among other sources.
The figures present an overall accounting of Russia’s slow progress in Ukraine, with Russia proceeding in some places at around 165 feet a day, slower than even the bogged-down and costly Somme advance of British and French troops in World War I. Since January 2024, Russia has seized less than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory, according to CSIS, even as it continues to advance in the country. Overall, Russia occupies about 20 percent of Ukraine.
“Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine is on pace to be among the slowest offensive campaigns in modern warfare,” said Seth G. Jones, one of the authors of the study. “They have suffered upwards of one million casualties; they have taken a tiny amount of territory; and they have lost massive amounts of equipment.”
The center put the number of Russian troop deaths at close to 250,000 since President Vladimir V. Putin ordered the invasion in February 2022. “No Soviet or Russian war since World War II has even come close to Ukraine in terms of fatality rate,” the study said.
The Soviet Union lost an estimated 8.7 million troops in World War II.
The study said that between 60,000 and 100,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed.
Russians outnumber Ukrainians on the battlefield almost three to one, and Russia has a larger population from which to replenish its ranks. Ukraine is losing a larger share of its smaller army. More than 400,000 Russians are believed to be facing about 250,000 Ukrainians on the front line, military analysts say.
Russia has maintained its troop levels despite the high casualties by carrying out its first draft since World War II and by enlisting felons and debtors, among other tactics. Mr. Putin has paid bounties to new recruits and has pressed people accused of crimes to enlist in exchange for dismissing charges.
In addition, North Korea sent more than 10,000 soldiers to help Russia to take back its western Kursk region, where Ukraine captured territory last summer.
Still, with high casualty figures and the slow pace of Russia’s territorial gains, Mr. Putin could face years more of a grinding war of attrition in Ukraine, especially if the United States and Europe continue to provide Ukraine with military aid and intelligence.
Ukraine’s ability to hold out as long as it has — and launch offensive operations in Russia, as it did last weekend in a daring series of strikes on Russian airfields — has punctured the global image of Russian military strength, U.S. and European officials and military analysts said.
“The Russian military has struggled to conduct ground force operations at scale, overcome prepared Ukrainian defenses, or break through Ukrainian lines to achieve operationally significant gains,” the Tuesday study said.
For Russia to win the war in the near future, according to Mr. Jones, the study co-author, the United States would have to withdraw its support for Ukraine.
“The Russians would hold the long-term balance of power if President Trump walks away,” Mr. Jones said. “If the U.S. doesn’t walk, Putin is in serious trouble.”
But after initially saying he could quickly reach a peace settlement, Mr. Trump has resisted calls from Ukraine and European leaders to find ways to push Mr. Putin to end the war.
Helene Cooper is a Pentagon correspondent for The Times. She was previously an editor, diplomatic correspondent and White House correspondent.
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