Russia packs up military assets in Syria; future of bases unclear
Russia used the air base in Hmeimim and naval base at Tartus to support Bashar al-Assad in Syria’s 13-year civil war. But now, Assad is gone.
Nearby, a Ka-52 attack helicopter and a S-400 air defense unit were being dismantled, most likely for their removal via the cargo planes, Maxar said.
Russia used the base 15 miles south of Latakia to support the Assad regime in Syria’s 13-year civil war. The United States backed some forces against the regime.
Assad fled the country for Moscow this week as rebels took control of Damascus, ending the family’s rule of more than a half-century.
It wasn’t clear whether Moscow planned to abandon Syria altogether. It has used Hmeimim to project power across the Middle East and Africa; in 2017, it signed a 49-year lease on the facility. The Russian naval base at Tartus, built during the Soviet era, supports ships in the eastern Mediterranean.
Given the volume of Russian materiel in the country, analysts said, a full pullout would take some time.
“It’s clear that a withdrawal is now underway,” said Dara Massicot, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. But “it’s unclear if they will fully evacuate or partially draw down at present.”
Russian forces, she said, appeared to have been given “safe passage to consolidate at their bases.”
Assad’s departure and the takeover by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have left Russia’s large military footprint in Syria at risk. Moscow says it’s in negotiations with HTS and has no plans to quit the country.
“The bases remain on Syrian territory, where they were,” Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov told reporters Thursday. “No other decisions have been made yet.”
A spokesman for HTS said he could not comment on the future of the Russian sites.
But Russia has repositioned many of its assets. Ships departed Tartus 10 days ago to loiter several miles offshore.
Russian troops were vacating smaller bases in Manbij and Kobane on Monday, the Syrian news outlet North Press Agency reported this week.
Anton Mardasov, a Moscow-based military affairs expert with the Middle East Institute, said it was too early to know what the removal of assets might mean for the long-term future of Hmeimim and Tartus.
Russia had maintained a web of smaller sites across Syria, Mardasov said, and could remove equipment related to those sites while keeping what it needed for the two large bases.
For now, U.S. officials believe that while Russia is scaling back its presence, it is not withdrawing from Syria entirely. It will seek to protect access to its air and naval bases, officials believe.
Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters Thursday that the United States was seeing Russia “consolidate assets” in Syria. Russia’s “political prowess within the Middle East region,” she said, “is significantly reduced now that Assad is gone.”
Russia’s uncertain future in Syria could give the country’s new leaders leverage with not only Moscow but also Western powers from whom it wants aid and sanctions relief, analyst Aaron Zelin said.
The new Syrian government could say, “Russia will be out if you work with us; if not, they’ll remain,” said Zelin, a fellow with the Washington Institute who has tracked HTS.
Analysts said some larger assets will probably be removed by sea through Tartus, a long journey that would probably require large ships. These ships could carry equipment from not only Tartus, but also Hmeimim and the Russian Embassy in Damascus.
“Basically, anything that can’t efficiently be flown out would go by ship,” said George Federoff, a former senior officer for Russia within the Office of Naval Intelligence.
“In 2015, it took Russia hundreds of sorties over a two-week period to deploy to Syria,” Massicot said. “So the process will take some time to complete now.”
Ellen Nakashima and Abbie Cheeseman contributed to this report.
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