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A Geopolitical Cauldron Simmers in Syria After Rebel Attacks
Iran and Russia, both stretched by conflicts of their own, have experienced setbacks in Syria after a rebel offensive in the northwest of the country.
Carlotta Gall was bureau chief in Istanbul for five years from 2017, reporting on events in Turkey and in Syria. She is based in London.
The timing appeared to be both calculated and opportunistic.
As soon as a deal to end fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon was signed last week, another conflict kicked off not far away in Syria.
Syrian rebels launched sweeping assaults against the forces of President Bashar al-Assad in northwestern Syria, taking control of large portions of territory, including much of the city of Aleppo.
The rebels also forced Russian forces to abandon a base near Aleppo and militias backed by Iran to cede control of the town of Tel Rifaat, a Syrian outpost near the Turkish border, according to Syrian humanitarian and research groups.
The sudden advance of the rebels, and the setback for Mr. al-Assad and his allies, has stoked a cauldron of geopolitical rivalries that has simmered in Syria for more than a decade after a democracy uprising in 2011 turned into full-scale rebellion.
It has also underlined how easy it is for violence to spread like wildfire across a volatile region made all the more unpredictable by the intertwining and competing interests of numerous large powers vying for influence.
Iran and Russia, hoping to prop up a key ally in the region, have been providing vital military support to Mr. al-Assad’s government for years. Russian planes have bombed rebel positions, while on the ground, Iranian-backed militias like the Lebanon-based Hezbollah have battled rebel fighters in support of the Syrian government.
Turkey and the United States also have troops present in Syria in areas not controlled by the government where they support different rebel groups — Turkey in the northwestern region, and the United States in the northeast.
In the offensive that began last week, various Syrian rebel groups have united under the leadership of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former affiliate of the terrorist group Al Qaeda. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham had been controlling most of the territory in northwestern Syria held by opposition groups.
The rebels had clearly seized an opportunity that presented itself with the Syrian government, Russia and Iran all weakened and overstretched by other conflicts, said Mouaz Moustafa, the executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, an American humanitarian organization that works for democracy in Syria.
Mr. Moustafa said the rebels had taken close note of the damage caused by pager attacks targeting Hezbollah members in Lebanon, and Israeli airstrikes on leaders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in Syria. Those attacks signaled to the rebels that the time was right for one of their own assaults, he said.
He added that a desire to aid Ukraine was another factor prompting the offensive, with the aim of striking a blow against Russia, a mutual enemy, he said.
Mr. Moustafa said he had been aware of preparations to coordinate an offensive in recent weeks. “I knew they had been making plans,” he said in a telephone interview, “but what surprised me was that they took Aleppo in two days.”
The surge in fighting has raised questions for the first time in years about how far the rebels can go and how strong Mr. al-Assad’s grip on power is. And it may disrupt the gradual trend toward acceptance internationally of Mr. al-Assad’s remaining as leader of Syria and the resumption of diplomatic relations with Syria among Arab states and some European nations.
Both Russia and Iran have declared their support for Mr. al-Assad, but beyond several Russian airstrikes on the cities of Idlib and Aleppo, which are both in rebel hands, analysts are questioning how much assistance they will be able to deliver in the immediate term.
Arab states have expressed concern about Syria’s sovereignty being respected, which analysts said was a diplomatic way of criticizing Turkey’s continuing role in backing rebel groups for its own interests.
“Concern in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq & Israel over the potential collapse of the Assad regime & Turkish expansion in Syria,” Hassan I. Hassan, a prominent Syrian journalist and editor of New Lines Magazine, posted on the social media platform X.
Iran’s military activity in Syria has been diminished by Israeli airstrikes that have increased in frequency and potency in the past year. The strikes have knocked out weapons supplies and militia groups as well as killed leaders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps who command Iranian militias in Syria and work closely with Syrian military divisions.
The strikes have not only damaged Iran’s freedom to operate in Syria, but have also created suspicion between the allies and their hosts, some Syrian analysts said.
The rebels’ success in securing important military points in and around Aleppo in the past few days, including a military academy on the outskirts of the city, has allowed them to consolidate control, the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, an independent research group based in Istanbul that focuses on Syria, said in a report on Sunday. It also potentially paves the way for new offensive operations, the report said.
“Russia faces a genuine predicament due to the growing challenges of adapting to the evolving battlefield realities, further complicating its ability to provide effective support to the regime,” the center said.
Turkey and the United States both support armed groups in Syria that have fought against groups backed by Russia and Iran.
Turkey supports the Syrian National Army, which is part of the rebel force fighting in Aleppo. It has long been focused on expanding a buffer zone along its border with Syria to guard against the activities of Kurdish militants based in the region that it sees as a threat. It also wants to create an area where it can resettle some of the three million refugees who have fled Syria and are living in Turkey.
The American forces in Syria work with the Kurds, and have armed and equipped a predominantly Kurdish militia, the Syrian Democratic Forces, to fight against the Islamic State, the extremist group that is also active in the region. Both Turkish and American forces have clashed with Russian forces on occasion in Syria.
Despite their dispute over American support for the Kurdish force, Turkey and the United States have managed to avoid direct clashes between their operations in Syria. The Syrian forces allied to each of them negotiated for the Kurdish troops to withdraw from positions without a fight, Mr. Moustafa said.
Mr. Moustafa said there had been and continued to be coordination between the rebels and Ukraine on such issues as countering Russian misinformation and providing medical assistance.
“Two nations are fighting for their country to be free of tyranny and outside occupation,” he said. “It’s natural for them to coordinate.”
Ukrainian officials have not commented on the Syrian offensive, but Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, has repeatedly said his forces would seek to attack Russian forces anywhere in the world.
Syrians watching events from outside the country describe this offensive, including the negotiated withdrawals, as distinct from previous periods of fighting. Few believe the government can retake lost territory quickly because of low morale in the army and in government-controlled parts of the country.
In those areas, many people, including government officials, have been reduced to poverty, and that is one of the reasons for the swift collapse of the government forces, analysts say.
Ruhullah Khapalwak and Saad Alnassife contributed reporting.
Carlotta Gall is a senior correspondent, covering the war in Ukraine. More about Carlotta Gall
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