Monday, December 09, 2024

Syria

Biden officials race to help stabilize Syria after regime collapse - The Washington Post
Democracy Dies in Darkness

Biden officials race to help stabilize Syria after regime collapse

President Joe Biden announced that U.S. forces have hit Islamic State militant camps and operatives in Syria.

8 min
Speaking on Dec. 8, President Biden acknowledged the risks and opportunities for Syrians following the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. (Video: Ross Godwin/The Washington Post)

The Biden administration raced Sunday to try to help stabilize Syria after the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, targeting the Islamic State with dozens of airstrikes and monitoring Syrian stockpiles of chemical weapons.

President Joe Biden announced that U.S. forces had hit Islamic State camps and operatives in Syria and said the United States was working with its partners to address concerns that extremist groups could capitalize on the power vacuum left by Assad’s departure to Russia.

“We’re clear-eyed about the fact that ISIS will try to take advantage of any vacuum to reestablish its capabilities to create a safe haven,” Biden said, referring to the Islamic State by an acronym. “We will not let that happen.”

The rebel groups that toppled the autocrat had their own “grim record of terrorism,” he said. “They’re saying the right things now. But as they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions.”

The flurry of activity capped an astonishing turn of events in which rebel forces needed just days to upend a status quo that stretched across the administrations of three U.S. presidents, and as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to steer a very different foreign policy from that of his predecessor.

Biden said he has directed his administration to work to ensure that Syria remains as stable as possible, as many actors inside and outside the country seek to capitalize on the situation to grab power and advantage. With Israel seizing control of border areas of Syria and Turkish-backed forces skirmishing with Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the country’s northeast, the situation remains deeply combustible.

Chief among the fears is that the Islamic State — which long held portions of Syrian territory under the fierce rule of its caliphate — could seize advantage of the situation to reestablish itself as a major force in the country.

Many parts of the U.S. government were caught off guard by Assad’s collapse, including longtime advocates for Assad’s ouster, according to one senior U.S. official, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak frankly about sensitive internal assessments. U.S. officials are far from confident that the rebels will govern in a humane or productive manner, the official said.

To beat back the Islamic State, forces from the U.S. Central Command, whose area of responsibility includes the Middle East, on Sunday struck over 75 ISIS targets using B-52, F-15 and A-10 warplanes, the command said in a statement.

“Battle damage assessments are underway, and there are no indications of civilian casualties,” Central Command said in a statement.

“There should be no doubt — we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria,” said Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, who leads the command. “All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way.”

Among numerous concerns is the fate of the remnants of Assad’s chemical weapons program. The Syrian leader once had a major chemical weapons stockpile and used the banned weapons repeatedly against rebel forces, the Obama administration said in 2013.

After international condemnation, much of the stockpile was dismantled, but monitoring chemical weapons inside Syria remains a “primary focus” for the Biden administration, a senior administration official said while briefing reporters. The official said chemicals weapons experts are “fairly confident” that the situation is under control, without elaborating.

The administration does not expect that the current chemical weapons threat will require “boots on the ground,” the official said.

With a wide range of regional actors threatened by instability in Syria and seeing an opportunity to seize advantage, Biden administration officials have been reaching out extensively to countries that share borders with Syria. The country’s central location makes it a hub for many regional dynamics and rivalries.

Iraq, Turkey, Israel, Lebanon and Jordan all have stakes in what happens in Syria. Russia and Iran — long Assad’s chief backers — also stand to lose from the collapse of his regime.

U.S. officials said the Biden administration is working with Turkey in an attempt to set up a deconfliction mechanism for the northern city of Manbij, where the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces have clashed in recent days with Turkish-backed forces.

Israeli forces moved Sunday into buffer areas of the Golan Heights and limited areas on the Syrian side of its border, describing those as temporary moves as Israel seeks to determine who is in the area. The Israeli government informed the Biden administration ahead of time, U.S. officials said.

“That is going to take an enormous effort from everybody. We think that should be the focus of those with an interest in building a better future Syria,” the senior Biden administration official said. “Additional fronts opening up, not in anybody’s interest.”

U.S. officials are in contact with all the groups involved in fighting in Syria, including the main group that ousted Assad, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which was once affiliated with al-Qaeda and remains on a U.S. terrorist list, the official said.

Asked whether the U.S. government would strip the group of its terrorist designation, which would enable deeper U.S. contacts and cooperation with it, the official would not rule it out.

“We have to be smart … and also very mindful and pragmatic about the realities on the ground,” the official said.

A third U.S. official said the administration is in the process of doing a “real-time assessment” about HTS and its level of independence from Turkey and Turkey’s views on Syrian Kurds, and whether the group should be removed from the foreign terrorist organization list.

Syria has long been a danger hot spot for U.S. interests. The Biden administration had been tracking the Islamic State targets that were hit in Sunday’s strikes for some time, even before the events of the last few days, and took the moment to weaken the group’s operational capacity, the official said.

The administration hopes the strikes will serve as an additional deterrent to aggression by the group, the official said.

Biden on Sunday sought to take credit for Assad’s fall from power, saying it was the result of the actions his administration took to boost allies amid the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Russia, Iran and Hezbollah were unable to aid the Assad regime like they had in the past because they are “weaker today than they were when I took office,” he said.

Biden said he was sending administration officials to the region and offering assistance to Syria’s neighbors, including Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq. He also promised humanitarian relief and announced his administration would coordinate with the United Nations to help Syrians build an independent and sovereign state.

For more than a decade, U.S. presidents have grappled with how to contain the brutal leadership of Assad without triggering a spiraling international conflict. The fall of the Assad regime fulfills a longtime U.S. foreign policy goal, after Russia and Iran supported Assad amid the Obama administration’s efforts to oust him.

U.S. officials have also for years sought the release of Austin Tice, the American journalist who was kidnapped there in 2012. On Sunday, Biden was asked about Tice’s whereabouts. “We believe he’s alive. We think we can get him back,” he said.

Trump, on Saturday, called for the United States to stand back in Syria, saying that Washington does not have a direct stake in the conflict.

On Sunday, Vice President-elect JD Vance echoed Trump’s call for the United States not to intervene, but he appeared to share Biden’s concerns about the future of the region. He tweeted that he was “nervous” about calls on social media to celebrate Assad fleeing the country.

“Many of ‘the rebels’ are a literal offshoot of ISIS,” Vance wrote. “One can hope they’ve moderated. Time will tell.”

Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, who led the U.S. Central Command during part of Trump’s first term, said he was concerned that the Islamic State’s possible resurgence could have “profound negative implications” for the region.

He said Trump would have to take a “good hard look at” addressing Syria amid risks that it could become a foothold for extremist groups trying to plot attacks against the United States and its allies. He noted that 900 U.S. troops are present in Syria for counterterrorism efforts.

“As we know, ISIS launched a successful attack against Russia just a few months ago. That’s why those troops are there,” he said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.” “So any decision to bring them out, we need to weigh that going forward.”

On Sunday, Trump drew a line between Assad’s collapse and Russia’s war in Ukraine. He said that Russian President Vladimir Putin, long Assad’s chief foreign backer, should abandon his years-long war in Ukraine.

“Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform. He called for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and continued, “I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. … The World is waiting!”

Zakrzewski reported from Paris. Ben Brasch, John Hudson and Ellen Nakashima contributed to this report.

Middle East conflict

The Israel-Gaza war has gone on for over a year, and tensions have spilled into the surrounding Middle East region.

The war: On Oct. 7, Hamas militants launched an unprecedented cross-border attack on Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking civilian hostages. We’re tracking how many hostages remain in Gaza. Israel declared war on Hamas in response, launching a ground invasion that fueled the biggest displacement in the region since Israel’s creation in 1948. In July 2024, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an attack Hamas has blamed on Israel.

Cease-fire: Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah agreed to a cease-fire deal in November 2024, bringing a tenuous halt to more than a year of hostilities. Here’s what to know about the deal’s terms and how it will be enforced.

Hezbollah: Hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, a militant organization backed by Iran, have escalated over the past year, leading to an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon. Israel’s airstrikes into Lebanon have grown more intense and deadly, killing over 1,400 people including Hasan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s longtime leader. The Israel-Lebanon border has a history of violence that dates back to Israel’s founding.

Gaza crisis: In the Gaza Strip, Israel has waged one of this century’s most destructive wars, killing tens of thousands and plunging at least half of the population into “famine-like conditions.” For months, Israel has resisted pressure from Western allies to allow more humanitarian aid into the enclave.

U.S. involvement: Despite tensions between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and some U.S. politicians, including President Biden, the United States supports Israel with weapons, funds aid packages, and has vetoed or abstained from the United Nations’ cease-fire resolutions.

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