Iraq and the American Election

You can read below two articles on the war in Iraq. The US is getting ready to elect a president in November. As I have noted here the last few days, the American economy is in disrepair. Here I write as simple as possible as to the development of events in the US from now to November regarding the election.

If the Bush administration lied about the extent of the economic collapse, the US response to Sadr's challenge can only be limited. According to Joseph E. Stiglitz the US is committed to three trillion dollars already in this effort. The US is fighting the war practically alone, Mexico during the Fox administration, did not support this adventure, and very few did. Anthony Blair from England and José María Aznar from Spain did, and as a consequence they lost their power. Fox's party, Partido de Acción Nacional, is still in power.

After reading Patrick Cockburn's piece in The Independent from London, appears to me that General Petraeus, even with his Ph.D. degree, does not understand poor Third World people. According to Cockburn, the Americans have been unable to control Moktada al-Sadr, because they did not expect a poor cleric to be much of an enemy. Saddam Hussein made the same mistake.

If there is not much money for that war, as seems to be the case, events in Iraq will affect the American election.

Who is more likely to be elected?

Counting on past experience, fear is likely to be a factor. If the American people want to be protected from al-Sadr, McCain will win. If the electorate is wise and wants to save money, Obama will be the next President of the United States. If they do not know what to do, four more years of Clinton are in the offing.

Whoever reads my blog, should know by now, that I have very little regard for predictions, even less about the future. In any case, there you have it.