Her
predecessor, David Cameron, gambled on a referendum to put an end to
talk about leaving the European Union — and lost, setting Britain on a
course for isolation and economic upheaval. Prime Minister Theresa May
gambled on a quick election to strengthen her hand in negotiating the
departure — and failed just as miserably, losing her Conservative majority in Parliament
and leaving Britain in political disarray just days before the
negotiations are to open. About the only thing clear on the morning
after the election was that the pound had declined.
In
an era of election surprises, Britain’s didn’t disappoint. Two months
ago, when Mrs. May made her call for a snap election, Conservatives held
a huge lead over Labour, which was perceived as dead in the water under
the old-school, hard-leftist Jeremy Corbyn. Mrs. May was expected to
get five years of unchallenged authority. But Labour gained a whopping
29 seats in Parliament, helped by the biggest turnout in two decades,
and a triumphant Mr. Corbyn called on Mrs. May to resign. In a parallel
surprise, the Scottish National Party suffered a drubbing, effectively
ending talk of another referendum on Scottish independence.
Mrs.
May lost for many reasons, chief among them a campaign that undermined
her reputation as resolute and tough. She rarely ventured outside of
scripted Conservative settings, and when she did she was ill-at-ease and
tone-deaf. A typical and especially damaging episode was her decision
to charge the elderly more for long-term care, a proposal promptly
labeled the “dementia tax” that she was compelled to withdraw. Mr.
Corbyn, by contrast, confounded all expectations with an aggressive
campaign that featured enthusiastic crowds at packed open-air rallies.
Surprisingly,
Brexit — the reason Mrs. May called the election and arguably the most
important matter confronting Britain, with potentially dire consequences
for the economy and for Britain’s place in the world — played only a
marginal role in either the Conservative or Labour campaign. Neither
Mrs. May nor Mr. Corbyn presented a coherent strategy for leaving the
E.U. beyond the vague notion that she was for a hard exit, with a full
withdrawal from the common market and an end to the free movement of
people, and he for a softer one. Only the Liberal Democrats focused on
Brexit, calling for a new referendum, but they emerged with a mere 12
seats.
Continue reading the main story
With
all but one out of 650 seats in Parliament declared, the Conservatives
still have the most with 318, and Mrs. May pledged to form a government in coalition
with a small Northern Irish party. She has insisted she will not step
down as prime minister, though that could change. Even if she remains,
her hand in negotiations with the E.U. will be weakened, with a constant
threat of new elections hanging over her head. Mrs. May has achieved
the exact opposite of the “strong and stable” government she said she
wanted for the enormously complicated and fateful talks, which are to
begin in just over a week.
By
contrast, the European Union side has been invigorated by the election
of a strongly pro-European president in France, Emmanuel Macron, and the
likelihood that his new party will win big in the impending
parliamentary elections. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany also looks
solid in her bid for a fourth election victory in September. E.U.
officials in Brussels insisted that dealing with a weakened Britain was
not in their interest, but there was no disguising a dollop of
Schadenfreude.
A
weakened Britain is in nobody’s interest. While the election did not
give Mrs. May the strong hand she wanted, it could still benefit Britain
if it forces the country’s newly reshuffled political leadership to
confront not only the domestic issues that played in the campaign, but
also the elephant in the room that went all but unnoticed. June 23 will
mark one year since the Brexit referendum; it is time for the government
to come clean with the public about what it can realistically expect
from the divorce with Europe, and what its strategy will be for the
divorce.
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