People
cannot prevent earthquakes, but they can take steps to minimize the
deaths and damage. Many more might have died in Mexico City this week
had the country not invested in an early warning system that rang alarms
just before the catastrophic earthquake struck. The United States,
which has been slow to finish a similar system on the West Coast, can
learn from Mexico’s example.
Scientists say that one of the most important things countries can do, besides improving building standards, is to install a system of sensors and computers
that detects and analyzes tremors and issues warnings. Thanks to modern
software and telecommunications, such systems can alert people to an
earthquake seconds or minutes before the shaking starts, depending on
where they are in relation to the epicenter — those further away get a
longer heads-up. The warnings, which can be issued through sirens or
text messages, may give people just enough time to move away from
windows, drop to the ground and take cover. And they allow officials to
halt trains, shut off valves in chemical plants, halt delicate medical
procedures and take other protective actions.
The United States Geological Survey is building a warning system called ShakeAlert
for California, Oregon and Washington. A prototype is up and running.
But Congress has not appropriated the money to finish it. Officials say
just 40 percent of the necessary field stations have been built so far.
The Geological Survey says that it would cost $38 million to finish the
system and $16 million a year to operate it. Congress appropriated just
$10.2 million in the current fiscal year. (California and private
foundations have also contributed money to the project over the years.)
Continue reading the main story
Earthquake Warning System
An early warning could give advanced warning to people
living several miles from the epicenter of an earthquake along the San
Andreas fault line.
Warning time
CALIFORNIA
60 sec.
45 sec.
SAN ANDREAS
FAULT LINE
35 sec.
24 sec.
12 sec.
Los Angeles
SIMULATED
EARTHQUAKE
EPICENTER
California
San Diego
AREA OF DETAIL
40 miles
Worse
still, President Trump’s budget for the 2018 fiscal year, which is
inhospitable to a broad range of science-based projects, proposed
eliminating the program entirely. This makes no sense, particularly when
you consider that the annual federal budget is about $4 trillion and
that the price tag of just one F-35 fighter jet is nearly $100 million. The United States can afford to spend a few million dollars to provide earthquake warnings to states that are home to 50 million people, or nearly one in six Americans.
The
program appears to be safe from the ax, at least for now. A House
Appropriations subcommittee voted this summer to continue funding in
2018. But if Congress were truly doing its job, it would increase
investment in disaster preparedness, as other countries have done.
Mexico installed its system after a devastating earthquake
in 1985 killed about 10,000 people. Japan began building one in the
1960s for its Shinkansen bullet trains. After the 1995 earthquake in
Kobe, that system was expanded nationally,
and officials started issuing public alerts in 2007. Several other
countries, including China, Taiwan and Turkey, have warning systems with
varying degrees of sophistication.
Most
people have a hard time understanding and preparing for rare but
catastrophic events, and politicians are no exception. After all, it has
been more than 100 years
since the great San Francisco earthquake killed an estimated 3,000
people and destroyed much of the city. But the subsequent 1989
earthquake illustrates that the threat remains. The country needs
protection against what many on the West Coast nervously refer to as
“the big one.”
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