PZ Myers

``Got that? You can't understand RHEB until you understand how it interacts with three other proteins, and how it fits into a complex regulatory pathway. Is that trivially deducible from the structure of the protein? No. It had to be worked out operationally, by doing experiments to modulate one protein and measure what happened to others. If you read deeper into the description, you discover that the overall effect of RHEB is to modulate cell proliferation in a tightly controlled quantitative way. You aren't going to be able to simulate a whole brain until you know precisely and in complete detail exactly how this one protein works.''

Taken from gizmodo.

I disagree, with Prof. Myers.

He can give the state of the art ideas on the problem to make a brain artificially. He is an expert in biology, I am not. Ray Kurzweil, to whom he directs his attack, is not a biologist either. He even criticizes Terry Sejnowski, for going along with some back of the envelope estimates of Kurzweil.

In my humble opinion Prof. Myers is missing the point of prognostication. I do not think, anybody: Myers, Sejnowski, or Kurzweil, can give us a blueprint on the evolution of science and technology. That is is not knowable. What I believe, Sejnowski, Kurzweil, and now I, with this note, are trying to do is guess the best estimate as to when we will have this or that, based on some informed, and in my case not so informed, opinions.

I haven't done Kurzweil's work; all I can do is to see his track record. What products he envisioned, and then produced. By this measure, he's done well for himself, he has much more money than I have, and maybe even more than Prof. Myers. I listen. Will I buy stock in Kurzweil's companies?

No.

I just read the Wikipedia piece on PZ; I like him.

He does make a prediction:

``I'll make a prediction, too. We will not be able to plug a single unknown protein sequence into a computer and have it derive a complete description of all of its functions by 2020. Conceivably, we could replace this step with a complete, experimentally derived quantitative summary of all of the functions and interactions of every protein involved in brain development and function, but I guarantee you that won't happen either. And that's just the first step in building a simulation of the human brain derived from genomic data. It gets harder from there.

I'll make one more prediction. The media will not end their infatuation with this pseudo-scientific dingbat, Kurzweil, no matter how uninformed and ridiculous his claims get.''

We'll wait to 2020; that is if we pass 2012.