President
Trump is expected to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate
agreement, three officials with knowledge of the decision said, making
good on a campaign pledge but severely weakening the landmark 2015 climate change accord that committed nearly every nation to take action to curb the warming of the planet.
A
senior White House official cautioned that the specific language of the
president’s expected announcement was still in flux Wednesday morning.
The official said the withdrawal might be accompanied by legal caveats
that will shape the impact of Mr. Trump’s decision.
And
Mr. Trump has proved himself willing to shift direction up until the
moment of a public announcement. He is set to meet Wednesday afternoon
with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who has advocated that the United
States remain a part of the Paris accords and could continue to lobby
the president to change his mind.
Even as reports surfaced about his decision, Mr. Trump posted on Twitter that he would make his intentions known soon.
Still,
faced with advisers who pressed hard on both sides of the Paris
question, Mr. Trump appears to have decided that a continued United
States presence in the accord would harm the economy; hinder job
creation in regions like Appalachia and the West, where his most ardent
supporters live; and undermine his “America First” message.
Interactive Graphic
The Stakes in the Paris Climate Deal: What Might Other Countries Do?
President Trump is expected to withdraw the United
States from the first worldwide deal to address global warming. Where do
other countries stand on the agreement?
Advisers
pressing him to remain in the accord could still make their case to the
boss. In the past, such appeals have worked. In April, Mr. Trump was
set to announce a withdrawal from the Nafta free trade agreement, but at
the last minute changed his mind after intense discussions with
advisers and calls from the leaders of Canada and Mexico. Last week, a
senior administration official said Mr. Trump would use a speech in
Brussels to make an explicit endorsement of NATO’s Article 5 mutual
defense provision, which states that an attack on one NATO member is an
attack on all. He didn’t.
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The
exit of the United States, the world’s largest economy and
second-largest greenhouse gas polluter would not dissolve the 195-nation
pact, which was legally ratified last year, but it could set off a
cascade of events that would have profound effects on the planet. Other
countries that reluctantly joined the agreement could now withdraw or
soften their commitments to cutting planet-warming pollution.
“The
actions of the United States are bound to have a ripple effect in other
emerging economies that are just getting serious about climate change,
such as India, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia,” said Michael
Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences and international affairs at
Princeton, and a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, a United Nations group that produces scientific reports designed
to inform global policy makers.
Once
the fallout settles, he added, “it is now far more likely that we will
breach the danger limit of 3.6 degrees.” That is the average atmospheric
temperature increase above which a future of extreme conditions is
considered irrevocable.
The aim of the Paris agreement was to lower planet-warming emissions enough to avoid that threshold.
“We
will see more extreme heat, damaging storms, coastal flooding and risks
to food security,” Professor Oppenheimer said. “And that’s not the kind
of world we want to live in.”
Foreign
policy experts said the move could damage the United States’
credibility and weaken Mr. Trump’s efforts to negotiate issues far
beyond climate change, like negotiating trade deals and combating
terrorism.
Graphic
Trump Is Hearing Plenty About the Paris Climate Deal. Who Will Have the Last Word?
As President Trump decides whether to stay or leave the
international climate agreement, political and corporate leaders on both
sides of the debate are lobbying him fiercely.
“From
a foreign policy perspective, it’s a colossal mistake — an abdication
of American leadership ” said R. Nicholas Burns, a retired career
diplomat and the under secretary of state during the presidency of
George W. Bush.
“The
success of our foreign policy — in trade, military, any other kind of
negotiation — depends on our credibility. I can’t think of anything more
destructive to our credibility than this,” he added.
But
Mr. Trump’s supporters, particularly coal state Republicans, cheered
the move, celebrating it as a fulfillment of a signature campaign
promise. Speaking to a crowd of oil rig workers last May, Mr. Trump
vowed to “cancel” the agreement, and Stephen K. Bannon, Mr. Trump’s
chief strategist, has pushed the president to withdraw from the accord
as part of an economic nationalism that has so far included pulling out
of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a multilateral trade pact, and vowing
to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Coal
miners and coal company executives in states such as Kentucky and West
Virginia have pushed for Mr. Trump to reverse all of President Barack
Obama’s climate change policies, many of which are aimed at reducing the
use of coal, which is seen as the largest contributor to climate
change.
In
a May 23 letter to Mr. Trump from Attorney General Patrick Morrisey of
West Virginia and nine other state attorneys general, Mr. Morrisey
wrote, “Withdrawing from the Paris agreement is an important and
necessary step toward reversing the harmful energy policies and unlawful
overreach of the Obama era.” He added, “The Paris Agreement is a symbol
of the Obama administration’s ‘Washington knows best’ approach to
governing.”
Although
the administration has been debating for months its position on the
Paris agreement, the sentiment for leaving the accord ultimately prevailed over
the views of Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson and Ivanka Trump, the
president’s daughter and close adviser, who had urged the president to
keep a seat at the climate negotiating table.
Other countries have vowed to continue to carry out the terms of the Paris agreement, even without the United States.
President
Xi Jinping of China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas polluter, has
promised that his country would move ahead with steps to curb climate
change, regardless of what happens in the United States.
During
a telephone call in early May with President Emmanuel Macron of France,
according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Mr. Xi told the newly
elected French leader that China and France “should protect the
achievements of global governance, including the Paris agreement.”
But
the accord’s architects say the absence of the United States will
inevitably weaken its chances of being enforced. For example, the United
States has played a central role in pushing provisions that require
robust and transparent oversight of how emissions are monitored,
verified and reported.
Without
the United States, there is likely to be far less pressure on major
polluting countries and industries to accurately report their emissions.
There have been major questions raised about the accuracy of China’s
emissions reporting, in particular.
“We
need to know: What are your emissions? Where are your emissions?” said
Todd D. Stern, the lead climate negotiator during the Obama
administration. “There needs to be transparent reporting on countries’
greenhouse gas emissions. If the U.S. is not part of that negotiation,
that’s a loss for the world.”
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