How Do We Know We Have to Change Course?

"For all the obvious differences in men and moment, how Richard Nixon dealt with Vietnam leaves haunting questions for the Obama administration as the new president has announced his own exit from Iraq and a policy review in Afghanistan. Are the policy makers of 2009 in the Middle East and South Asia free of the cultural-historical ignorance that haunted their forerunners in Southeast Asia? Is the new presidency free of the old Washington demons at last — the mistaking of national interest, habits of overreaction, the illusions of omnipotence, the cognitive dissonance at evidence of failure or futility, the military’s preference for the military solution, the absence of reflective thought, the failure to reach out beyond the supposed experts of bureaucracy or establishment for another sensibility and perspective?

Exorcised or not, ghosts of Vietnam hover over the Obama foreign policy, not least in key officials like former National Security Adviser James L. Jones Jr. and the special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke — men whose formative career experiences were in Vietnam, and who have not yet told us what they think of the chilling relevance of that history to what they now face.

One parallel is plain as early as the first hundred days. As with Richard Nixon and Vietnam, Barack Obama’s political fate will be inextricably tied to the wars he inherits."

By ROGER MORRIS

This excerpt was taken from the NYT (below).

I am no President. I have my own decisions to make. I write here some general thoughts, that may help President Obama, and most of all, myself.

The heading of this note guides my thoughts. A simple answer, I've used before is, if you are getting results, stay the course, otherwise start looking for other options.

President Obama already told us what is he going to do. Get out of Irak. I posed a question on this Blog, so far the answer is:

CAN OBAMA WIN IN AFGHANISTAN?

A resounding. Don't Know. One for yes, one for No, and one for Don't Know.

Not statistically significant, but what the heck, we have to function with limited information. I pose that our life is like that. We never know for sure what will happen next, and least of all, what are we going to do next.

“Let me say this as plainly as I can,” the president told thousands of Marines stationed here. “By August 31, 2010, our combat mission in Iraq will end.”

That is a quote from Obama's speech at CAMP LEJEUNE, N.C. today (below).

I don't think he should've said that. We do not know the future. I understand politics, and the need to reassure those young women and men risking their lives over there. But Obama cannot guarantee that. He can state his intention to leave then, or earlier if possible.

I have to change course, things are not turning up as I expected. I haven't made a decision, but if I see myself in another place one year from now, I won't be surprised.