Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Economic and Weather Prediction

I have written about the character of complex systems, and why scientists can give us only two weeks, for rain forecast.

Indonesia is under a deluge, I do not know when that is going to stop. It has been raining in Acapulco; same story. I am the last person you can ask. A 16 year old girl just died in Iowa in the flood. My son is going there next week. I am useless, I do not know how is he going to fare for four years in Iowa City.

From Mexico we have:

``Morelia, Mich. Un menor de 12 años muerto, inundaciones en al menos una decena de colonias y más de mil damnificados dejó el desbordamiento de cuatro arroyos en el municipio de Huetamo.''

Morelia, Michoacán. A 12 year old boy dies during floods in around ten neighborhoods and more than a thousand people were affected by four overflowed creeks in Huetamo county. 

Paul Krugman, with a Nobel and all, did not tell us that today the Dow was going to be underwater.

Because of this, a lot of smooth lawyers for coal, and oil companies, laugh at us thinking persons, and say. Nobody knows, give me your money; ha, ha.

There are things we do know.

Insurance companies are ready, and so is the Pentagon.

All the rest of us can do, is monitor people's worries; I for one, see the American middle class disappearing. Unemployment is  9.5% in the whole US.

Economic activity is slowing down everywhere.

From the Iowa link above:

``It wasn't just 6 inches last night. It was the 6 inches, plus the 4 inches we got the night before, and the 5 inches we got the night before that. We have been getting dumped on for the last month, but the past few nights have been total Hell! Many people who've never had water in their basement are getting sewer back ups into their basements.''

As I was reminded today, though:

``Pessimism is a luxury that a Jew can never allow himself.
Golda Meir''

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