"Some commenters have asked for examples of mistakes I’ve made. Actually, I’ve already written about that.
Let me add, however, that the focus shouldn’t be on me and my personal divining skills. It’s about the model, not the man.
What I mean by this is that I have, I think it’s fair to say, had a pretty darn good record since financial crisis struck. Not on everything — I expected more clear evidence of deflation by now, and I’ve been wrong in some political judgements, such as not expecting the Baltics to be as willing to endure suffering as they have. But compared with the Very Serious People, I — and those of like mind — have done extremely well."
This is not, however, because of some supernatural quality of intellect. I like to think that I’m a fairly smart guy, but what has given me and others an advantage in this crisis is having a better model. If you came into this crisis understanding IS-LM and the logic of the liquidity trap, you were in a position to get most stuff right; if you came in ignorant or dismissive (or both) of basic demand-side macroeconomics, you were going to mess up big time.
So I am not some kind of infallible sage, even on matters purely economic. It’s the model, not yours truly, that has really performed under stress.
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