Is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia oil production declining?
Stuart Staniford thinks so.
You can see his prediction in the graph.
Stuart Staniford ends his piece in A Noisedive into the Desert
thus:
Parting Thoughts
No-one has taken me up on my bet, but since I feel even more confident of my conclusions, I'm raising the offered stakes to $2000. I need to go find some cornucopians to take the other side of it.
Which reminds me. For those of you doomers keen to see this as the end of civilization as we know it, it's going to take more than this for me to join you. While it's certainly worrying, we need to keep some perspective: 8% of Saudi production is 1% of global production, and as long as global declines are less than a few percent a year they are well within society's proven capacity to adapt. Probably the biggest potential issue is the political stability of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia once this news becomes clear to everyone.
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