Analysis of Mexico

I teach a class on "Analysis of the Current World", it is directed to mathematics undergraduates. This is a campus wide course for all sophomores in the Autonomous University of Guerrero.  It is the same course for all programs, so students could get credit for any undergraduate degree. Nevertheless I put an emphasis on science and mathematics.

The course blog in Spanish is here.

I use professor José Silvestre Méndez's book, "Problemas Económicos de México". The book analyzes the different Mexican governments since the end of the Mexican Revolution  around the middle of the twenties of last century.

Recently I studied the work of the MIT professors, Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, in the book "Why Nations Fail".

In this note I analyze today's presidential election in Mexico.

The race is between two main candidates, Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Enrique Peña Nieto. The 1910 Mexican Revolution changed the Mexican Constitution - my uncle Francisco Figueroa Mata, was the Guerrero State representative to the February 1917, Constitutional Convention in Querétaro. The new constitution stipulates a non-renewable presidential six year term.  Whoever gets elected today, will rule Mexico until December 2018.

The country could go in two different directions. Mexico is at a crossroads. In the interim, since my uncle's party lost the election in 2000, a conservative party ruled Mexico, for two six year terms. These parties are, the Revolutionary Institutional Party (PRI) my uncle's, and the National Action Party (PAN) the conservative party ruling now. This conservative party, made Mexico a paying member of the OECD. Recently Mexico duly bailed out  the European Union, with the contribution of the other members of the organisation, at the tune of several billion dollars.

The two roads are:

• Continue in the Failed Nation state
• For the first time, take steps towards not being a Failed Nation

"Why Nations Fail," explains that historical junctures, like today's, lead to either Extractive, or Inclusive, Institutions. Without going into details, it is clear to me, that Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who does not belong to any of those parties, represents the second option.

I hope he wins.