Thursday, July 29, 2010

Table 3. Forecast of future Mexican emigration at the national level under different climate scenarios

``
Scenario
CO2 effect Adaptation* Change in
crop yields, %
Change in emigrants
as percent of
population, %
Change in no. of
adult emigrants,
millions†
Rosenzweig and Iglesias (38): GISS‡
No No −46 9.2 6.4
Yes No −35 7.0 4.9
Yes Level 1 −27 5.4 3.8
Yes Level 2 −13 2.6 1.8
Rosenzweig and Iglesias (38): GFDL‡
No No −39 7.8 5.5
Yes No −28 5.6 3.9
Yes Level 1 −20 4.0 2.8
Yes Level 2 −10 2.0 1.4
Rosenzweig and Iglesias (38): UKMO‡
No No −48 9.6 6.7
Yes No −37 7.4 5.2
Yes Level 1 −31 6.2 4.3
Yes Level 2 −15 3.0 2.1
Cline preferred estimates§
No Not Clear −35 7.1 5.0
Yes Not Clear −26 5.1 3.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Level 1 adaptation includes changes that imply small additional cost to the farmers and not necessary policy
changes, such as shifts in planting dates, variety and crop, and increases in water application to irrigated crops.
Level 2 adaptation includes higher order adaptations that imply significant additional costs to the farmers, such
as large shifts in crop production timing, increased fertilizer application, installation of irrigation systems, development
of new varieties, and/or changes in policy.
†Assuming that the population aged 15–65 y is 70 million in Mexico.
‡The equilibrium scenarios for three major General Circulation Models were used by Rosenzweig and Iglesias
(38): the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), the GFDL, and the UKMO.
§The Cline estimates (23) give equal weights to estimates from Mendelsohn-Schlesinger Ricardian model and
Rosenzweig and Iglesias (38) crop model. Both assume some levels of adaptation. ''
 Taken from PNAS.

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