Objectively there is a state of civil war in Eastern Ukraine, as there is one in the Hot Lands (Tierra Caliente) of Mexico.
If you ask me, I wouldn't want to be in either place right now. I would either be kidnapped, robbed, or killed outright, if I were to wander over disputed territory. There is no freedom of movement in those places. Granted, here in Chicago, if I were to walk in certain areas, I could be killed also. Having said so, I feel safer in the greater Chicago area, than in either of those two places.
My conclusion is simple, I will start to see refugees from Tierra Caliente and Ukraine, anytime soon. They will vote with their feet.