Saturday, February 20, 2010

Is There a Ten Year Cycle in the Economy?

There is a sunspot eleven year cycle. I read in the NYT article on unemployment today that the economy also shows a similar phenomenon. You can read there the following.

"After the recessions in 1990 and in 2001, 31 and 46 months passed before employment returned to its previous peaks. The economy was growing, but companies remained conservative in their hiring."

Those numbers caught my attention. I remember 1960, 1970, and 1980, as equally lean years. I was in California from 1970 to 1980 basically. When I got there, I had the impression that jobs were scarce, then when I left ten years later, I felt the same thing.

Isn't it interesting, 2012, is just across the corner, and it looks grim already.

Our lives also seem to be arranged in decades. First, read, write, and arithmetic. Second, adolescence. Third, early adulthood. Fourth, maturity. Fifth, late adulthood. Sixth, early senectude. Seventh, mature senectude. Eight, late senectude. After that is all up for grabs. If you believe in Ray Kurzweil; that is the beginning of your eternal life.

I vote yes. There is a ten year cycle in the economy. This is the time to get ready then. Those of us that were born in the beginning of a sunspot cycle, get ready to start rolling again. As Bolaño  said: ABANDON EVERYTHING, AGAIN.

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